Get the big picture stupid!

Bill Clinton beat me to "Its the economy stupid!". So I will just say "Get the big picture stupid!".

An expert is defined as a person who has a comprehensive and authoritative knowledge of or skill in a particular area. It is election time once again in the Philippines. This is the time when everyone suddenly becomes an expert in everything.

Supporters of one naughty, self-confessed murderer/philanderer candidate authoritatively concluded that one candidate's late husband was murdered because he has uncovered corruption in his office. His plane crash was not an accident, these experts say. These experts also authoritatively claim that the widow is not fit for the job she is running for.

Supporters of the same candidate are suddenly DNA and history experts,  too. They say another candidate is the daughter of a past president and that she is a sister of a vice presidential candidate. These supporters are now also experts in determining the sincerity and fitness for office of a candidate just by his clothing and appearance. All these despite his unpresidential demeanor.

I have to give it to them. These experts are really experts in fomenting hate towards a candidate whose biggest fault to them is his 'lack' of charisma, his marriage to a broadcaster, and his being left out in the planning/implementation of the country's biggest military/police debacle. He is not faulted for reneging his citizenship, his penchant for cursing, for his illness, nor for his plunder.

To these experts, there are no conspiracy theories anymore. They have all been proven true.

Why the rabid hate on anyone who supports other candidates. Are they that committed or are they that 'kumitid ang utak'?

These experts refuse to see the bigger picture by forming conclusions from a large array of seemingly unrelated sources.

But to them, borrowing from Bill Clinton, I say this. It's the bigger picture stupid!.

It's easy to be frustrated with an aspect or two of our everyday lives. Traffic, for instance. When we get stuck in traffic for 4-5 hours each day, we are naturally frustrated. This frustration, by transference, is redirected to the candidate of the present administration.

Why is there so much traffic? There are too many cars. 

Why? Many can afford a car now. Many can afford to ride Uber despite the surge pricing. 

Where do they go? They go to high-end malls, gorge up in buffets, splurge on sales. 

Why? Unemployement is low, disposable income is high, business is doing well.

Why? Investment confidence is high, plunderers are in jail.

When Yolanda struck in 2013, it was the strongest typhoon in the world then. It is easy to get frustrated with the recovery efforts, because you somehow believe more could be done. But even ADB believes that Yolanda recovery efforts are faster than the Aceh recovery from the 2004 tsunami which left over 120,000 dead.

It is easy to get frustrated when you know of drug problems within your neighborhood, when basic traffic discipline is but a dream. When you think of it, the things that the expert supporters want are characteristics of a good local government official. These are what their candidate has as evidenced in his audience with a large business club yesterday.

The bigger picture is that we're better off now than six years ago. We must continue and sustain that. Their candidate is good for the local government, but we must doubt his grasp of the bigger picture.

Mar's 800k votes hump.

Just 5 hours after the polls closed last Monday, Comelec released figures that say 57% of votes has been counted. Noynoy led Erap by over 3 million votes. Binay led by close to 800k votes over Mar.

As more votes are counted and transmitted, one would expect the lead to widen. It happened in the case of Noynoy. With 90% of votes in, his lead is now over 5 million. But in Binay and Mar's case, the lead just hovered around that 800k hump. After 3million votes and an 800k lead, Binay just coasted along. All the way to the finish?

Hmmp.

Post election thoughts

It appears Binay will win the VP contest. With 4M+ votes to count, he leads by just under 800k votes over Mar Roxas. Ever since the start of the counting, Binay had that consistent 800k lead. As more votes get counted, that lead stays the same. Wonder where that 800k came from? Regions 4 is so close to home and yet he did not take care of it.
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The total votes for president was close to a million more than the total votes for vice president. It means there are many people who did not vote for a VP. Or many VP votes were invalidated. Erap was caught on cam to having not voted for a VP. Probably his experience with GMA made him do it.
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Did Mar get overconfident? Maybe. The surveys said his lead over Loren was comfortable. And she looked she had nowhere to go. With INC's endorsement locked up a long time ago, they did not see Binay. Now Chiz feels like a kingmaker. He can claim his endorsement clinched it for Binay.
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Villar: Ako ay may sipag at tiyaga.
Gibo: Ako ay may galing at talino.
Noynoy: Wala yan sa mommy at daddy ko.
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Pinoys don't mind performers-turned-politicians-who-don't-perform as long as they are not tainted with corruption. Joey Marquez lost. Lito Lapid and Bong Revilla won. It also helped that they stayed away from GMA in this campaign.
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This election's vote is a vote against GMA. Gibo despite all his galing at talino lost big. Villar despite his billions and sipag at tiyaga lost billions. All because of the GMA connection. Erap the ex-convict was ahead of the two. Binay postured himself as anti-GMA. He branded Mar as pro-GMA. He leads as of now.
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Chiz enjoys his kingmaker role. But he better make sure that his VP behaves, or else he will go down with him.

My 2010 election experience - a tale of an almost disenfranchised

PCOS machine

My wife and I were at the polling precinct before 8am. We knew where the room was, we knew our sequence numbers, and we brought along a codigo of our choices. We were also aware that our precinct was clustered along with 4 others. We thought voting in this automated election will be a breeze. It wasn't. It was almost a frustrating exercise.

We went to the 2nd floor where our precinct is. The actual polling place (wehre the PCOS machine is) is on the first room on that building wing. Our cluster is made up of that precinct and the next 4 rooms. But voters are made to line up past to the next room where they give out numbers. Election helpers call out the numbers and the voters will transfer back to the 1st room to vote. Only up to 10 voters are admitted into the room.

Comelec again made a lapse in judgment. When they clustered precincts because to minimize the number of PCOS machines to be used, they should have allowed more than 10 voters at a time. In the manual era, when there was no clustering, they allowed 10 voters at a time. Today, with clustering - effectively making a precinct 5x as big as before, allowing only 10 at a time will naturally create long queues. I think they should let in 50 at a time. If 50 is deemed too big, then 25-35 is certainly better than 10.

Anyway, I finally got to the voting room after an hour and a half. I counted more than 20 markers on the watchers table, including the ones being used by the voters. There were also enough desks for the voters to use. Comelec could have allowed more than 10 at a time. Is there a plan to disenfranchise voters?  I finished marking my ballot in just over 2 minutes, carefully not marking outside the of oval shape. I heard comments that ballots with shading outside the oval are rejected by the PCOS. When the PCOS screen said "Congratulations!", I managed a smile despite the tiresome wait. I have done my part to change this administration.

Final thoughts on this election

People should vote for change. This administration has brought us Joc-joc, Garci, ZTE, Neri, Winston, Abalos, C5, ad nauseam. If we don't vote to change all that, they will not only go scot-free, we're bound to get more of that.

People should also vote for a vice president and senators who will help accomplish that change. Villar will lose but he will still be a senator with a chance to be senate president. Congress will still be controlled by GMA, who herself will be a congressman with a chance to be Speaker. In that scenario, President Noynoy can be impeached easily. That tack will be pursued by GMA and her minions much more so if the VP is on their side. That's why I think they're buttering up to Binay (Loren is so far behind). He will be easier for this admin to work on. So, to avoid all that possibility, the country will be better off if the whole team for change gets elected - the president, vice president, and the whole senate slate.
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People give more credence to self rated poverty surveys than to official government poverty statistics. After all, poverty can be argued as a just state of mind. So, despite the catchy jingle and all his proclamations of his poverty the big question is why don't people believe that Villar was poor?
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Gibo won handily in a mock election at a government office. This is far, far, off the nationwide survey results from the regular pollsters. Some say this is because the people in this office are technocrats and they go for technocrats like Gibo. Hmm, maybe. But many people here think like bureaucrats. I think that people in this office have found their comfort zone. They are very comfortable in their positions that they want the status quo to remain. Garci, Joc-joc, Abalos, GSIS fiasco, etc do not bother them at all.

As we comfort the disturbed, we should also disturb the comfortable.

Ang bise presidente ko may B - betkabs / Binay admits infidelity

Nobody cared much when Mon Tulfo wrote about the wife of a candidate for a national position who found out that her husband has a fashion model for a girlfriend. It was almost a dead giveaway as it mentioned that the photos were given to the candidate’s wife by a close rival

of their son who is aspiring for a local post. Plus, the second item in that column was about the mayoralty contest in Makati being a a three-cornered, close fight among Binay's son and 2 others.

Now cheesy photos of Chiz's vice president surfaced on the Internet. Faced with these, Binay himself has admitted that he had an extramarital affair. In the spirit of transparency, it's time for Chiz to update his commercial endorsement of Binay - "Ang bise president ko may B - betkabs! Ang bise presidente mo ba meron din?".

Vote for change

For government employees:

Do you want reforms at GSIS?
Do you want government scams to continue?
Do you want the corrupt to be prosecuted?
Do you want our political institutions to be saved?

Do you want change?

Vote for change!

Who's afraid of a parallel count?

Who's afraid of a parallel count? While many sectors, including 6 of the 9 presidential candidates, propose a parallel manual count in the computerized elections, the Comelec say it is not necessary. The other 3 candidates (Villar, Teodoro, and Gordon) share Malacanan's stand for not favoring one. The 6 are afraid their votes won't be counted right by the machines.

Teodoro, being the official administration candidate, supports the administration stand. Dick is having a limp stand. Villar is being a gracious guest of the administration.

Why is it needed? A parallel run is one of the ways to change from an existing system to a new one, in this case from manual to computerized elections. A manual count will be used to compare the output of the computerized run and prove the reliability of the new system. Machines failed in the advanced voting and some security features are not fully implemented like UV markings. These factors merit the need for a parallel count.

Why we should not be afraid of a manual count? A manual count will just validate the results of the computerized count. The possible scenario of results from the two counts not matching is not reason enough to stop manual count. The two counts should match anyway. Discrepancies should be easy to explain, like shading less than 50% of the space.

Why are some officials so brazen in their attempts to rig procurement contracts? It is a game of follow the leader. Most probably they know something that make the higher-ups beholden to them, kaya malakas ang loob nila. The same way past officials got away too. Their mindset must be, bakit sila lang? They should soon change their official name to COMOLLECT.

Villar desperate for a Black Swan Event?

Manolo Quezon wrote yesterday about Cory's death being a Black Swan Event. A Black Swan Event is something no one expected, and that no one foresaw, and viewed as impossible. Cory's death, MLQ3 says led to our Great Awakening and the Great Remembering. Or shall we say re-awakening and re-remembering that still buoys Noynoy on top of the surveys.

Villar now thrusts her frail octogenarian mother crying to the public "stop picking on my son". Desperate move. Instead of answering squarely the latest accusation of his rivals, he acts like a bullied kid, makes sumbong to his mother and asks her to make the accusers stop. The melancholic paawa effect does not stop there. She nostalgically sang "Stardust" and ends up sobbing.

Politicking? No, if you ask them. But what if this is desperate move is more sinister than it appears? The 86 year old woman should have been insulated from the dirty world of politics. It's a give and take game. Spare the old woman the aches of hurtful campaigning. It now seems Villar's sisters are as desperate as he is, allowing their dear mom to be dragged into this.

Villar and company must be reminded that a Black Swan Event is not premeditated. Noynoy certainly did not want his mother dead so he can be president. I hope no one is that desperate.

Ampatuan endorses Villar

The prime suspect in the Maguindanao massacre, Andal Ampatuan, Jr., is endorsing Manny Villar. Ampatuan wears orange-blue rubber baller ID bands of Villar and NP senatorial bet Gilbert Remulla. "Ito (shows baller bands) ang kandidato ko," Ampatuan Jr. told reporters during his transfer to Camp Bagong Diwa.

Read the full story here.

April Fool's, is the joke on Gibo?

Gibo resigned as party chairman to protest against the lack of support from GMA. He is the 'official' candidate of the administration but he has not received the support he needs from the president. In February, he spent just P60 million on TV ads while Villar has splurged P120 million. GMA herself has put on more pasasalamat posters around Metro Manila

The Inquirer today put up a story on the breakup of the Arroyo party. It may later retract the story and claim it's an April Fool prank. But the signs are there -  the defections, the lack of funds, and then Gibo's resignation.

The breakup came after a survey confirmed the slide of Villar in voters' preference. Noynoy now has a commanding 9pt lead. The momentum is starting to build up again. In no time at all, the lead could go up that cheating will be very hard. Perhaps in panic, the administration decided to consolidate its support to a single candidate resulting to defections to its not so secret candidate. Still in denial, the galing at talino but dense candidate still doesn't get it. The joke is on Gibo.

Why not Gibo?

While many concede that Gibo is the most intelligent among the presidential candidates, many are also quick to add that Marcos was also a very intelligent man. Marcos made intelligence a bad characteristic. But what really turns off many voters against Gibo is everyone's perception that should he win he will only protect Gloria's Interests Before Others.

His comment on criticisms against Mikey Arroyo's nomination as representative of a party-list group of security guards does not help erase the public perception one bit. He said "Is it legal or not? It's legal. Wala tayong magagawa (We can't do anything about it)."

Gloria and party has always bastardized and flouted institutions. They did it in the impeachment process, in the Chief Justice selection. Now they are doing it in the party-list elections.

So why not Gibo? Do we want six more years of Gloria?

Is the PBA for Noynoy?

Basketball and politics are two of the Filipino's favorite pasttimes. It is no surprise that the two often mix. Like some movie stars who used their fame as springboards into politics in the twilight of their careers, there are basketball stars who turn politicos after retiring from play.

There is now even a party-list group called PBA. I just don't know what marginalized sector of society they represent. Danding Cojuangco himself, who controls at least three teams in the PBA, ran for the presidency in 1998.

Today Purefoods and other players campaign for Noynoy. They are led by James Yap, who is the husband of Kris, who is sister of candidate Noynoy.

The import-laden conference started last night. But Purefoods won't be playing until maybe April 4. By then many teams have had played three games each. Is it because of some quirk in scheduling? Or is it to give Purefoods players time to recuperate after a tiring and injury-filled championship run? Or is it to give the players a chance to barnstorm the country in campaign sorties? While Danding is so far plays coy on who he is supporting, the PBA or the San Miguel league, seems to be supporting Noynoy.

The legions of fans are not complaining. Many are for Noynoy too.

My new criteria for choosing the next president 2

I blogged last year about my new criteria for choosing a president. I wanted a childless president because the past 5 presidents had kids who had more guts than talent for showbiz. I thought Mar fits that criteria perfectly until someone commented that Mar has a son too. Mar confirmed this later.

Then came Noynoy. He fits the bill perfectly. He has links to showbiz, yes, with sister Kris and past girlfriends like Barbara Milano. But he is childless as of now.

And now people may have more compelling reason for voting Noynoy. Kris Aquino, his self-absorbed sister, has promised to migrate when she becomes a liability to Noynoy. She declared on TV in the aftermath of the Ruffa walkout: "On a last note, I promised Noy that if he does WIN, and I'm a cause of distress for him & his presidency, I'll gladly take my 2 boys to live anywhere there is TFC [The Filipino Channel] so that I can continue to work but w/ our overseas Filipino brothers & sisters. "

She made a tearful and difficult to watch (and distressing to Noynoy's candidacy) appearance last Sunday. It was so bad that the newscast that followed immediately afterward was a very welcome relief.

So there you have it. If you can't take this act anymore and if you want her to fulfill this promise, you know who to vote.

The candidates - up close and personal

The Philippine Star conducted one-on-one interviews with the presidential candidates. Sara Soliven de Guzman was able to observe their mannerisms, body language, eye movements and their general behavior whenever crucial, controversial, irritating, or easy questions were asked.

Her general observations on Villar, Erap and Gibo fit in the general expectations or their known reputations. It is her observations of Noynoy which are more revealing, as they do not generally conform to the 'rumors'.

According to her, Manny Villar brings in an “entrepreneurial spirit” in the presidential race. He was frank, earnest, tactless. He had wit, intelligence and fiery drive. He surely will never run away from this fight!

Joseph “Erap” had a congenial presence. He is a seasoned, charming, candid, friendly politician. Erap is the “most charming” presidential candidate. He’s got the will to survive (in this race)!

Gilbert Teodoro had no “airs” whatsoever. He was very modest, friendly, and docile. He had a very pleasing personality, very respectful, quite spirited, serious and intelligent. He is the “politician” in the purest form of the word amongst the presidential candidates. He thinks fast, quite cunning and calculating, very sharp and clever. He is very convincing and irresistible.

Noynoy Aquino was generally kind, courteous, soft-spoken and tranquil. He exuded confidence especially when it came to affairs of the state. He is not naïve. He is the “pure statesman” in this presidential race. He is like a walking encyclopedia. Amongst all the candidates, he knows that a revolutionary change is just what the world and the people need. His vision has clearly put him way ahead of the rest.

I think I know who Ms. Soliven is voting for. I think we should go for him too.

Villar's net worth rises faster than GNP

A presidential campaign costs hundreds of millions if not billions. Manny Villar reportedly spent over half a billion in ads alone in October-December last year. Yet if he wins, he stands to earn just 60k pesos a month, which is in a 6-year term a little over 3million after taxes. Villar's spending is way over the top but the other candidates are also spending a small fortune.

Using available data from the Internet, below is a table of the candidates net worth over the years and the Philippines GNP. The data comes from a PCIJ article on the candidates rise in wealth despite poll expenses. The Philippine GNP data is from the IMF's World Economic Outlook. I used the previous available data to fill up the years with no available data. Then I prepared a simple line graph to see the relative rise in the figures.

As was observed by the PCIJ, the candidates’ rise in net worth typically came after an election year - while they were supposedly serving in office, while they should not have benefited from business from which they should have divested their interests. PCIJ also observed that the spike in their net worth even defied the slump in both local and global economy because of the financial crisis in 1997 and 2008.

The graph clearly show that Villar's (and to some extentGibo's ) rise in net worth is higher than the rise in GNP. The red line shows the Philippines GNP in current prices, the orange line is Villar's net worth, the green is Gibo's, Erap's is the dark orange, Dick's is the pink one, Noynoy's is the pitiful yellow languishing at the bottom. Erap's net worth rose sharply after getting elected in 1998. Gibo's net worth rose because of some lucky inheritance.  What is Villar's excuse?

	Noynoy	Erap	Gordon	Gibo	Villar	Phil., GNP (US$)
1992		3.41	8.3		75.43	52.982
1993		3.41	8.3		75.43	54.368
1994		3.41	8.3		75.43	64.084
1995		3.41	11.87		75.43	75.525
1996		3.41	11.87		319.92	84.371
1997		3.41	11.87		319.92	83.736
1998	8.7	3.41	11.87	80.17	319.92	66.596
1999	8.7	35.86	11.87	80.17	319.92	76.157
2000	8.7	35.86	11.87	80.17	319.92	75.912
2001	8.7	35.86	11.87	74.54	319.92	71.216
2002	11.98	35.86	24.92	74.54	481.5	76.814
2003	11.98	35.86	24.92	74.54	481.5	79.634
2004	11.98	35.86	24.92	74.54	481.5	86.930
2005	13.46	35.86	24.92	232.43	759.82	98.829
2006	13.46	35.86	24.92	232.43	759.82	117.534
2007	13.94	35.86	26.52	232.43	759.82	144.043
2008	13.94	35.86	26.52	232.43	1050.00	166.909

PLAK! Hindi lahat pera ang katapat

Manny Villar thinks that everyone has a price. Unfortunately, Enrile, Erap and now Gordon, prove that this is not true. The way rumors circulate that he is GMA's hidden candidate make many believe it is not a rumor anymore because everyone's saying it. Villar sorely needs the services of someone like GMA's Defensor.

Gordon says he is fed up with Villar camp's propensity to use his money to get what he wants, including the presidency. "You can buy some of the people some of the time, but you can't buy all the people all of the time." The expected reaction from Villar is the usual hollow blanket denial. Enrile and Erap might have some credibility problems but somehow people believe them when they said Villar tried to buy them off. Now that Gordon is saying the same,  more people will be inclined to believe it.

It's Gordon's integrity against Villar's integrity. Let's see how Villar buys out the story.

Presidential quotable quotes

From the web:

Noynoy Aquino: "Hindi ako magnanakaw".

Gibo Teodoro: "Hindi ko kelangan magnakaw"

Dick Gordon/Bayani Fernando: "Bawal magnakaw, Nakamamatay"

Manny Villar: (paulit-ulit, pero walang maniwala)
"Hindi ako nagnakaw."

Erap Estrada: "Kelangan ko ulit magnakaw"

PGMA: "Wala na kayo mananakaw!

Villar has spent over half a billion pesos on ads so far

BusinessWorld Online reported that presidential aspirant Sen. Manuel B. Villar was at 14th place in the list of top 20 advertisers in the last quarter of 2009. Villar spent P543 million from October to December 2009, a 551% increase from last year. That probably does not include those ads paid for his "friends". And it's not even the start of  "official" campaign period.

There is no reason to doubt the validity of the report given that Villar's ads are really all over the media. Perhaps the figure is even understated. That figure could easily go up if we factor in the production costs of the ads.

What the voters should realize is how a politician can manage to amass a fabulous fortune by influencing the public works projects around his properties. First, make the public works department construct roads for your properties even if there are on-going road projects for that. Then, make the government pay top money for your properties even if adjacent properties are not as expensive. The politician cuts it both ways - by kickbacks on the road project and by getting paid premium price for the properties. But wait, there's more. The properties now are valued much, much more because of the road improvements.

Don't wonder why more than half a billion on advertising in just three months is peanuts, and he's not even officially campaigning yet.

The coward from Tondo walks ater the talk

Sen. Villar tried to defend himself from his colleagues' accusations over the C5 controversy. He proudly said "walang pong duwag na taga-Tondo". The senator from Las Pinas could not be referring to himself because he quickly left the hall and refused to be interpellated. He did not walk the talk. He walked after the talk.

Villar denied the charges and refused to recognize the committee that handles the case. He presented data that obfuscate the issues already made clear and simple by Monsod. He could have salvaged some public sympathy had he answered questions credibly. Perhaps he simply doesn't have the answers.

"You can have all the facts and figures, all the supporting evidence, all the endorsement that you want, but if you don't command trust, you won't get anywhere", said Niall FitzGerald, former chairman of Unilever, as quoted by Stephen Covey in his book The Speed of Trust: The One Thing that Changes Everything.  This is what Villar has been reduced to - an untrusted candidate that won't go anywhere. As Gandhi once said, "the moment there is suspicion about a person's motives, everything he does becomes tainted."