Trend shows Pacquiao's punch stats on the decline

Here's a compilation (Table 1) of Pacquiao punch statistics from the last Morales fight up to Bradley II. The stats are culled from boxingscene.com and boxrec.com. I also compiled the punch stats of his opponents (Table 2). From the two tables, we get the average jabs and power punches thrown per round (Table 3).

Table 3 is then plotted on a line chart to give us Figure 1. The adage that styles make fights might explain the up and down fluctuations in the chart. We fit a trend line over the points. Excel does fitting a polynomial trend line well. From the trend lines, we see that Pacquiao clearly peaked in 2008-2009 when he fought dela Hoya-Hatton-Cotto. While Pacquiao won over Clottey, that fight was the start of his decline.

We also produced a trend line of Pacquiao's punches that landed (Figure 2). This chart shows an even faster decline. We plotted his accuracy too (Figure 3) . And we get a slight declining trend as well.

Finally, Table 4 shows the occasions and areas where he outworked his opponent. Pacquiao generally outworks his opponents except when he fights counter-punchers. The 2nd Marquez fight and both Bradley fights show that counter-punchers are busier than Pacquiao. This tells us that Floyd Mayweather, Jr., most probably will outwork him too.

In the post-fight interview, Pacquiao said that there are two more years in his boxing journey. Incidentally, there are also two more years before the next elections where he can run for senator. He also said recently that his ideal weight class is junior welterweight. That effectively gives him and Mayweather another reason not to fight each other. But that will also pit Pacquiao against the likes of Matthysse, Danny Garcia, Keith Thurman, and his former sparmate Shawn Porter. Not to mention Khan, Provodnikov, and Bradley again.

If Pacquaio cannot/will not fight Mayweather and if the prospect of beating FMJ at this point (more so next year) is dim, I suggest that Manny retire. There is no point in him being a stepping stone of the new light-welterweights to shine, like Barrera and Morales did for him.

The data set used for the tables and charts above is here.

Table 1. Pacquiao punch stats

Table 2. Pacquiao opponents' punch stats

Table 3. Pacquiao's average no. of punches per round

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figure 3. Accuracy

Table 4

Floyd may not weather Manny

For all his posturings about him being the greatest, Floyd Mayweather, Jr.'s refusal to commit to fight Manny Pacquiao betrays his insecurities about losing that 0 loss record. While the whole boxing world wants to witness the fight, Floyd himself wants none of it. In news item from Reuters.com, Floyd said he doesn't need Pacquiao.

Despite his masterful but controversial conquest of Victor Ortiz, Floyd talked about his dominance in the past tense. "I don't need him. Where was Pacquiao in 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 when I was dominating the game? He never asked me (for a fight) when I was in my twenties or when I was in my teens." For the information of Floyd, who is now 34, in 1996 Manny fought at 113 pounds or 18 below Floyd's fighting weight then.

Floyd added that "a fighter just don't get to 25 years old and all of a sudden he becomes great," referring to Pacquaio. Maybe he just heard of Pacquiao when Pacquiao was 25 in 2004. At that point, Pac still fought at 126 and Floyd at 135. Pacquiao's star was on the rise having begun the streak against Mexicans that earned him the Mexicutioner tag. But Pacquiao's ascent to stardom actually began 2 1/2 years before when he wrested the crown from Ledwahba.

Maybe Ortiz before the headbutt made Floyd realize what pressure Pac can bring to him. Maybe Floyd suddenly felt he can be hit now. That's why he is keeping his distance. Shrewd kid.

Mayweather-Ortiz shows Floyd true side - good, crude, and rude

I spent P501 yesterday to watch the satellite feed of the Ortiz-Mayweather tiff at the Gateway Cinema. It was money well spent. The undercard was superb. I finally got the chance to see young Mexican legend in the making, Saul Canelo Alvarez, fight. His handlers seem to take good care of his young career, careful not to feed him to the old lions just yet. At this point, he still doesn't have what it takes to get past the likes of Cotto and the other veteran super welterweights.

I also got to see Erik Morales fight again. At this stage of his resurrected career, watching him fight is like watching an old Erik Morales fight in slow motion. His body, though not flabby, doesn't have the abs present in most other 140 pounder. His is the body of an old man. He won convincingly against a late substitute but not after being threatened in the early rounds. I'm glad he won the race to be the first Mexican to win titles in 4 weight divisions. He does not have the same arrogance exhibited by Barrera and Marquez.

Now the Mayweather-Ortiz fight started out as the mismatch indicated by the 5-1 fight odds. No matter how hard Ortiz tried, he cannot get inside the crafty defense of Floyd Jr while getting repeatedly pummeled with hard rights. In the 4th, he managed to get Floyd on the ropes but he was still not connecting cleanly. In a fit of disgust, maybe, he intentionally head butted Floyd, promptly earning him a point deduction. Then the bizarre happened. He apologized-kissed Floyd-touched gloves-tried to kiss Floyd again-while the referee glanced towards the timekeeper-and-BOOM-BOOM-Floyd connects with a 1-2 left right combo that floors him.The left photo shows a clueless Joe Cortez.

It was not an illegal punch. The headbutt was illegal. But the ending soured further Floyd's image. It was sucker punch, but worse than the one Floyd did to Mosley. And of course Ortiz, with a guaranteed  US$2.5 million, won't protest the outcome. It was inevitable anyway. The bizarre events just made ended it sooner.

The fight should be an eye opener for the PacMan-Roach tandem. They should prepare for Floyd's fast right straights. They should plan ways to penetrate the shifty shoulder rolls. And most importantly Pac should learn to always put his hands up to prevent those sucker punches. In the Mosley fight, PacMan acceded to all the Mosley touch glove gestures. Against Floyd, he should touch gloves with arms straight out in front.

I stayed on to watch the post-fight interview. Floyd went into an expletive laden rant against veteran broadcaster Larry Merchant. He initially rambled on about thanking God, blah-blah, but Merchant cut him off to ask why despite being in control of the fight he had to resort to that unfair 1-2 combo. Then Floyd shockingly began his tirade. Perhaps it was his way to avoid the tough questions about the Pac fight.

This just shows the true side of Floyd. He is a good fighter, probably the best of this era. In the eventual Pac fight, Floyd will be the odds-on favorite. But this also shows the true nature of Floyd. In the run up to this fight, his supporters attribute his aberrant behavior to his marketing savvy. They say his bad boy image sells tickets. Maybe. But what about his cheap shots? He sucker punched Mosley too. When asked about his behavior and his unexciting fights and his avoidance of a Pac fight, he throws off in a rant. He is not selling fights in those post fight interviews. He just shows who he really is.

Now compare that to Pacquiao. Pac touches gloves when asked. He even picks up opponents he just floored. At times he refuses to knock out a completely helpless foe but still manages to give an entertaining fight. When asked about a possible Mayweather bout, he replies gracefully about it being a promoter's job and fighting who is lined up for him.

Compared to our Pacman, Floyd the fighter is good, but as sportsman, he is crude and as a human being, he is rude.

Pacquiao will have a tough time versus Mayweather

As I expected, Mayweather ran roughshod over Marquez. The Pretty Boy was simply much faster, sleeker, and mas magulang. And the fellow who gave Pacquiao fits in their two fights had no answer to the bigger Mayweather. The easy Mayweather win was an impressive fight for the two boxers. It was not boring at all, despite the virtual shutout.

So, how will Pacquiao fare against Mayweather? Marquez lost two controversial fights against Pacquiao. They fought on the same weight classes over the years, although Pacquiao started out much smaller. But Marquez was able to hold his own against Pacman. Against the naturally bigger Mayweather, the story was drastically different. They were in different fighting classes.

I have to give props to Marquez. He tried to make a go of it. But his best was not enough. Mayweather can rightfully claim to be the best fighter of all time. But not necessarily the most endearing or the most exciting. He can beat them all. Period.

If Pacquiao fights Mayweather, Pacman must be wary of the left hook. And he must counter with his own left or upper. In short he must be perfect on that night. Then he will have a chance.

In the meantime, Pac's corner will have to consider not letting Cotto get too much weight advantage over their fighter. In this fight, Mayweather visibly outweighed Marquez by more than 10 lbs. Manny, for his part, should start training seriously. With everything else equal, a good natural welterweight will always beat a good natural featherweight, as Marquez learned tonight. A superb training regimen/ discipline for this fight will make the difference for our pambansang kamao. For all Filipinos' sake, all showbiz/politician leeches, this goes to his network too, tantanan niyo muna si Pacman. Train in Batanes, for pete's sake.

Marquez 142, Mayweather 146, and it's a welterweight fight?

At the weigh-in this morning (Manila time), Juan Manuel Marquez weighed in at 142 lbs., while Floyd Mayweather, Jr. tipped the scales at 146. Wtf? This is a welterweight fight where the limit is 147 lbs. It turns out that there is a supposed catch-weight at 144 lbs.

JMM looked flabby even if he's just 142. He could bulk up overnight as fighters do come fight time. But that will make him flabbier, and softer, and slower. There is even lesser chance for him to win.

FMJ looked ripped and sweaty, but he doesn't look weak. He will be quick. He can add up more poundage overnight and still be comfortable tomorrow. He will win within the distance.

It looks like FMJ will pay a fine for coming in above 144. But he doesn't care, rightly claiming it's a welterweight fight anyway. The concept of catch weights foul up boxing.

Come November, when PacMan fights Cotto at a catchweight of 145 (in another welterweight title fight), Cotto can show up at above 145, pay the fines, and enjoy an advantage. What then are the weight classes for? Hopefully, PacMan learns a lesson from the beating JMM will get tomorrow. PacMan can opt not to fight Cotto if Cotto gets above 145.