Female power rise poses challenges

The Economist says that the gradual women empowerment in the last 50 years, though a welcome development for both sexes, have brought social consequences that will be the challenge of the next 50 years.

Hillary Clinton noted that her 18M votes in the primaries represent 18M cracks (pun intended?) in the ceiling. Women now make up half of the work force in many economies. In the other economies where it is not, the ratio of women in the work force is rising.

How did this come about? Politics (feminism) brought governments to pass equal-rights laws. Economics and technology also did their share. The demand for brain power grew as the world entered the post-industrialized era.

Demand has been matched by supply: women are increasingly willing and able to work outside the home. Women now have more time to work as the time for traditional traditional female work of cleaning and cooking was reduced by better technology at home. Additionally, the contraceptive pill and family planning became widely accepted. The pill has not only allowed women to get married later, it has also increased their incentives to invest time and effort in acquiring skills.

But the men still dominate the upper ranks of management. In America and Britain the typical full-time female worker earns only about 80% as much as the typical male. The article says prejudice may be the key but there is a deeper reason why this is so: many women are forced to choose between motherhood and careers. Childless women earn almost as much as men, but mothers with partners earn less and single mothers much less. The cost of motherhood is steep for women. Child rearing deprives the women of the time to gain the professional experience/education that they could have. The reason for the income gap may thus be the opposite of prejudice. It is that women are judged by exactly the same standards as men.

This Hobson's choice is imposes a high cost on both individuals and society. Many professional women reject motherhood entirely. Others delay child-bearing for so long that they later resort to fertility clinics. Some may opt not to work at all, thus depleting the collective investment in talent. But a choice must be made. Studies found out that, years after graduation, just over half of those who had chosen to have children were working full-time. About a quarter were working part-time and just under a quarter had left the labor force. Almost all of women who left work to have children want to return to work. But only 74% managed to return, and just 40% returned to full-time jobs.

While making women work leaves too little time for their children, this trend will continue. The rising cost of living and the empowered women's mind makes this a necessity. In the west child care takes a sizable portion of the family budget, and many childminders are untrained. The private sector can make more women-friendly and family-friendly work environments. Governments can make school hours coincide with working hours so the children can be at school while their parents work. But quitting work to look after the children can mean financial disaster.

This is where the Philippines' extended family system come in handy. Our extended family and the practice of grandparents staying with the family afford working moms to have caretakers for the children.

GMA to insist on Cha-cha

NBN-4 televised yesterday CNBC's interview with Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. I caught a portion of it and from what I heard it seems that she will definitely push for Cha-cha. The interviewer, Maria Bartiromo, asked if she would want to continue as prime minister. GMA's reply was not a categorical no, but she insisted that fundamental reforms in the political system is necessary.

Our dysfunctional political institutions became that way because of GMA herself, and now she has the gall to declare that amendments are necessary. Fortunately, many now see through her devious plans. Definitely she will not succeed.

Here is the transcript from 7:26 to 8:42. In the video, you may slide the progress bar to around 7:26. Or click here to open a new window.


Maria Bartiromo - ...So it sounds like you are not done yet. You still have a lot left on your plate

GMA - YES!(grins and nods)
MB - Let me ask you this - would you like a constitutional amendment to a parliamentary system where perhaps you can serve as prime minsiter?

GMA - Well, I've always been saying there are two Philippines. One is where the economy is working again and moving forward. The other one is where the policitcal system is still broken. We've done many fundamental reforms in the economy and it's time to begin to do fundamental reforms in the political system. Now where that will go, what the specific reforms will be, that will be up to those who are in charge of doing such amendments.

MB - I guess there was a vote recently and a third of the people said that they do not expect PGMA to step down.

GMA - (chuckles) Oh well (unintelligible) that's only a third and that's not true and I've said it over and over again, my term ends in 2010 but until the last day I'm going to continue to work hard for our economy, our environment, and our education,

MB -  Sounds like the people likes you to be there beyond 2010 which I'm sure is a very nice feeling for you.

GMA - The important thing is what we must do within this next year.

Saving is counterintuitive? The paradox of thrift

Late last year, Malacanang urged Filipinos to tighten their belts some more by saving money and being more thrifty. The monetary authorities embarked on initiatives to promote financial learning that aim to promote a culture of savings. Early this year, a monetary board member urged Filipinos to strengthen their personal finances and help the economy by saving more in banks.

Global consumer confidence is down and a local survey shows consumers see buying conditions in the next quarter less favorable, as the Filipinos’ spare cash is primarily intended for savings. Overseas remittances are seen to go flat this year, and in the first four months of the year, US remittances actually went down. Households have to curtail their spending. Filipinos become more prudent and cautious. In fact the IMF has said that Philippine households showed significant increases in savings rates, thereby cutting domestic demand. Is the government's plea to save now heeded?

But wait! Jollibee and SM are getting worried. Now economists warn us saving at this time will not do us any good. Contrary to what intuition or common sense would indicate, saving now will do us more harm. How is this going to happen?

From Wikipedia: "The paradox of thrift (or Paradox of Saving) is a paradox of economics propounded by John Maynard Keynes. The paradox states that if everyone saves more money during times of recession, then aggregate demand will fall and will in turn lower total savings in the population because of the decrease in consumption and economic growth."

Old school economics say that since what was saved was later invested, there could not be excessive saving. But later Keynes asserted that thrift is virtuous only up to a point. If we increase the proportion of income we save, the reduced expenditure on goods will lower total demand in the economy. Thrift is laudable up to the point businessmen in the economy wish to borrow our savings for investment.

A former NEDA chairman and the monetary authority share the sentiment that further precautionary saving will worsen the country’s current economic conditions.

What happened to their pontifications that frugality is good for our families and the economy? It took a receding economy to be an eye-opener for us to be wise with our money. This is a natural reaction to our increased awareness of our fragile economic state.

But is it going to be a problem?

Why do big business and government authorities want us consumers to fuel economic growth?

Big business and government must also do more to help the economy along. What good is growth if it is not spread among the many? Make sure that the stimulus package is not siphoned off by greed. Be satisfied with moderate growth profits. Please moderate the greed.

How Capitalism works... - Will it work in Manila?

This is from my high school yahoogroup. Thanks Icky.
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Forwarded by a friend:

It is the month of August, on the shores of the Black Sea. It is raining, and the little town looks totally deserted. It is tough times, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.

Suddenly, a rich tourist comes to town.

He enters the only hotel, lays a 100 Euro note on the reception counter, and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one.

The hotel proprietor takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the butcher.

The Butcher takes the 100 Euro note, and runs to pay his debt to the pig grower.

The pig grower takes the 100 Euro note, and runs to pay his debt to the supplier of his feed and fuel.

The supplier of feed and fuel takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the town's prostitute that in these hard times, gave her "services" on credit.

The hooker runs to the hotel, and pays off her debt with the 100 Euro note to the hotel proprietor to pay for the rooms that she rented when she brought her clients there.

The hotel proprietor then lays the 100 Euro note back on the counter so that the rich tourist will not suspect anything.

At that moment, the rich tourist comes down after inspecting the rooms, and takes his 100 Euro note, after saying that he did not like any of the rooms, and leaves town.

No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now without debt, and looks to the future with a lot of optimism..

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the United States Government is doing business today.

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Will this work in Manila? I don't think so. Manila prostitutes are seguristas. They want cash up front. For this to work in Manila, we have to legislate that the girls give 'services' on credit.

Blasts from the past still ring true in the present

Some people contend that the Philippines has declared independence not just once but six times dating from Bonifacio in 1895 up to Roxas in 1946. It is actually more if we add to that the freedom regained from the people power revolt in 1986. But what do we have to show for it?

Ang sambayanan ay hindi pa rin malaya sa kahirapan. Binanggit ni Pat Sto. Tomas sa kanyang onlayn kolum ang pagkapanalo ng maikling pelikulang "Chicken a la Carte" sa isang kompetisyon. Bagama't sa simula pa lamang ng pelikula ay tila alam ko na ang direksyon ng pelikula ay hindi ko pa rin mapigilang maantig ng pinupunto ng direktor.

Nagkataon din na isang araw matapos ang pagdiriwang ng araw ng kalayaan ay nagkita-kita muli kami ng ilang kamg-aral mula sa mababang paaralan. Nakalulungkot isipin na sa kabila ng ilang dekadang hindi pagkikita, ang mga kaganapan na bumabalot sa bansa ay katulad pa rin ng dati. Kaya naman may kabuluhan pa rin ang mga awit na unang narinig hindi matagal makaraan ang aming pagtatapos.

Kaya narito ang pelikulang nabanggit ni Pat Sto. Tomas at narito rin ang dalawang awit mula sa Banyuhay. Patunay ito na hindi pa tayo umuusad at malayo pa ang ating gagapangin kung hindi tatyo tatayo ngayon.

Oy Utol, Buto't Balat Ka Na'y Natutulog Ka Pa 

masdan niyo ang inyong paligid
akala mo'y walang ligalig
may saya at mayroong awit
ngunit may namimilipit
at siya'y humihibik

masdan niyo ang ating buhay
masdan niyo ang kapalaran
bakit may nahihirapan
bakit may sumisigaw

kay hirap ng tumawa kung hungkag ang iyong tiyan
kay hirap ng mangusap kung bibig moy may tapal
kay hirap ng mabuhay kung kalagaya'y ganyan
kay hirap ng lumaban kung takot ka sa kalaban

ay-yay-yay

walang tutulong
walang tutulong sa atin
walang pag-asa kundi ikaw at ako rin
at kung tayo'y mananahimik at di kikilos
ang dapat sa atin ay tawaging mga gago

bakit may nahihirapan
bakit may sumisigaw
bakit may namamalipit
bakit may humihibik
maging ako'y nahihirapan
kaya ako'y sumisigaw, sumisigaw

Buhay Pinoy

Nang ako ay isilang

At nagdilat na ang mga mata

Ako'y agad sinalubong

Ng mga problema

Kahit saan araw-araw

Kung ang mundo'y pagmamasdan

Punong-puno ng mga tao

Lagi na lang may kaguluhan

Ay kayraming mga tao

Sumasakit ang ulo ko

Tignan n'yo sa bangketa

Pulubi ay naghilera

Mga kamay laging nakasahod

Doon sila natutulog

Ako'y mayroong kaibigan

Siya ay hindi nakapag-aral

At dahil sa kanyang kahirapan

Siya'y napilitang magnakaw

Ay kayraming mga tao

[Nagsisikip/Punong-puno] na ang mundo

Problema'y dumadami

Sana'y isipin n'yo

Ganyan ba talaga

Ang buhay ng pinoy

Ganyan ba talaga

Tayo sa habang panahon

Kayraming mga pamilya

Anak nila'y sobra-sobra

Wala namang maipalamon

Kahit kumayod maghapon

Sa umaga pagkagising

Wala palang makakain

Asawa ay kanyang aawayin

Mga anak sisisihin

Tignan n'yo ang mga pamilya

Sa umaga pagkagising

Wala palang makakain

Asawa ay kanyang aawayin

Mga anak sisisihin

Ay kayraming mga tao

[Nagsisikip/Punong-puno] na ang mundo

Problema'y dumadami

Sana'y isipin n'yo

Mayroon pang pag-asa

Isipin n'yo, isipin n'yo

Happy financial independence to all!

Remember the '70s commercial jingle "ipagpatuloy ang kaunlaran, mag-impok sa bangko"? The tagline has since been used by banks in an attempt to promote domestic savings. We perennially lag behind in economic performance compared to our Asian neighbors. Raising investments is one way of aiming for a higher economic growth. Investments require financing that will can be sourced from domestic sources like savings.

Household savings, according to official government data, have consistently been decreasing. The data also shows that remittance from Overseas Filipinos is a major source of aggregate household saving. OFs should be encouraged to save a portion of the remittances using formal channels.

There is a Youtube channel that showcases videos to promote a culture of savings and encourage the channeling of these savings into productive investments in financial instruments and business ventures. There is also the Financial Learning Campaign advocacy of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas which aims to encourage the productive uses of remittances, not only for consumption or spending for the basic needs, but also for savings in different forms of financial instruments and/or investments such as in small- and medium-sized enterprises or microfinance. They also have the OF videos there. O, ano pa? Save na!

While we're not looking

On January 30, this cute administration gushed over what it called a better-than-expected economic growth as gleaned from its own official statistics. The government’s economic managers claimed the results were  "respectable" compared to its Asian peers. The 4th quarter growth of 4.5% exceeded official estimates of 3.6-4.4%, pulling up the full-year result to 4.6% where the target range was 4.1-4.8%.

But wait, while we were not looking, the government has revised downward the economic expansion it proudly screamed, with officials saying they "overestimated" economic numbers. Now they say the gross domestic product in the 4th quarter was only at 2.9%, from 4.5% that they originally announced. Because of this downward revision, growth in 2008 was ony at 3.8%, much lower than 4.6% growth originally reported.

They trumpeted the 4.5% in the headlines. Expect the lower 2.9% to be buried deep inside the business pages. I wonder how they will spin it.

The government spins

With the ongoing economic uncertainties, Filipinos are saving more and spending less, a recent survey found. According to the Nielsen consumer confidence survey, 69 percent of Filipino consumers prefer to put cash left after paying for basic expenses into savings--up 3 percentage points from the 66 percent in the last six months of 2008.The survey also said that less consumers are spending on new clothes (35 percent from 39 percent), pay off debts (32 percent from 37 percent) or go out for a vacation (27 percent from 28 percent).

The Nielsen online survey showed that overall consumer confidence level in the Philippines dropped with the rest of the world. The Filipinos' decline in spending is forced, we have nothing to spend anyway.

But expect this cute administration to find things differently. According to its own consumer expectations survey, negative sentiments among consumers declined significantly in the first three months of the year. But it glossed over the fact that the sentiments are still negative!

The survey said optimism was on the rise only among low-income families, these families have hit rock bottom, they have nowhere to go but up. The higher income families are more pessimistic. Buying intention of consumer households also showed improvement, however, the survey proponents has yet to track whether these buying intentions translated to actual increases in consumption.

Well, apparently not, as the independent Nielsen survey showed.

Eternal sunshine of the spotted mind II

I have written before about the optimism of this cute administration. Why not, when you hit rock bottom there is no way but up. But the way we see things cloud our resolve to make them better. When things go bad, this administration turns delusional and say they are just perceptions and not reality. Shades of  "she's the one talking but she's not the one speaking" - plain doublespeak.

Take the case of dwindling foreign direct investment. It is unfortunate that there is a global crisis in addition to the local crisis we are having since this cute administration took over. But the government downplays the lower FDI and celebrates its projected zero growth. We extol the resilience of the economy when the FDI has stooped to 1/4 of its level a year ago. How low can you go before it breaks?

The recorded FDI in Jan-Feb 2009 amounts to US$16 million. Manny Pacquiao earned more than that with his purse and PPV shares in the Hatton fight. Pacman's gross pay is more than the FDI that the entire Philippines attracted in February. And the government is happy?

Of course, the government can always tweak its statistics. The SWS unemployment survey says that adult unemployement is now at record high; which is consistent with the global trend. The government includes the 15-year olds in its own labor force survey. Moreover, the government survey used another definition starting 2005 resulting in the lowest unemployment rates in years. Clever, huh?

The graph below shows the unemployment curve dropping starting 2005. Is this a result of GMA's 1 million jobs a year program? No! This is caused by the adoption of the new definition. The blue line indicates what could have been the jobless rate had they not redefined terms. Clearly the job creation program failed. Not so clever, after all! The other graph is from the SWS website. It shows the increasing adult jobless rate.

Reconciling the SWS survey with the government's can lead to a disturbing conclusion - that there are relatively more entrants to the labor force from the 15-18 year olds than any other age group annually. These kids should be in school. Ang kabataan ang pag-asa ng bayan! What happens to their future and this nation's future?

A pleasant surprise

It's a pleasant surprise that our economy grew more than expected. Analysts predicted a growth of above 4% but the economy actually grew by 6.2%. Government says the growth is fueled by increase in personal consumption expenditure brought by pre-election spending. Fine, understandable. Government-side spending for the election hasn't factored in yet in this growth. In fact, government spending growed slower in the first quarter. So it's not true that GMA spent a lot for the human billboards that disappeared right on the day after the election. The overly advertised government programs that GMA bandied about did not contribute significantly to this GDP growth, government says so. The government acknowledged, though, that the increase in government spending was for the printing of election paraphernalia and contractual services (and maybe the botched computerization). Moreover, centrifugal sugar exports grew by 60% this quarter. Last year, we actually filled our quota. With this growth in sugar export, we may have filled our quota this early. The traditional top export earners actually didn't post growth this time. Manufacturing is down. Our ability to sustain this growth(?) is doubtful.

The opposition says GMA spent a lot of government money for this election. The government, through its data, says it isn't so. Economic planners shoudn't be exactly happy with this growth. If government will not admit spending much during the first half of the year, it will be very hard to show that GDP will grow significantly by the 3rd quarter and by year-end. We have milked the data dry to show that GDP increased but not because of government spending.