The truth hurts but it shall set you free

I don't know why there is much anguish from Duterte supporters over the political advertisement paid for by Sen. Trillanes. Their camp hates the ad so much that they got a TRO against its showing. They say kids were used in the ads, that kids have nothing to do with politics, that the use of children in the ad is unethical and immoral.

The Taguig RTC may TRO local TV but there is no TROing Youtube. Find it there before they ask Youtube to take it down too.

Wtf? Duterte might ask. There is also an ad by Pride ACS that uses kids and it continues to run to this day. And no one gives a hoot. It is kind of unethical and immoral too, using the criteria given by Duterturds.


Duterte appears in the Trillanes ad. So it is exposure for him. Trillanes is even paying for Duterte's exposure on TV. What ingrates?!@#$%.

The kids in the ad were not exploited. Hindi naman sila pinalangoy sa dagat ng basura. They were made to ask valid questions. After all, the elections are for their sake most of all.

Are the Duterte acts in the video surreptitiously taken? No! There is no violation of privacy here.

Are the Duterte deeds in the video spliced to take it out of context? Spliced for brevity, maybe. Taken out of context, no! If the full videos are shown, even more of the same context will be known.

Did Duterte apologize for the deeds/things he said in the video? No! He is even proud of them.

So why the fuss? Why stop the ad?

The truth is the truth hurts. The truth embarrasses them. Their idol is an embarrassment.  

First the Duterturds deny that their idol is not presidential. Then they got angry at non-Duterturds and the ad. Soon they will be bargaining and depressed before they accept it. 

We may have to speak slowly or spell it to them, but we have to try. We have to set them free.

 

Get the big picture stupid!

Bill Clinton beat me to "Its the economy stupid!". So I will just say "Get the big picture stupid!".

An expert is defined as a person who has a comprehensive and authoritative knowledge of or skill in a particular area. It is election time once again in the Philippines. This is the time when everyone suddenly becomes an expert in everything.

Supporters of one naughty, self-confessed murderer/philanderer candidate authoritatively concluded that one candidate's late husband was murdered because he has uncovered corruption in his office. His plane crash was not an accident, these experts say. These experts also authoritatively claim that the widow is not fit for the job she is running for.

Supporters of the same candidate are suddenly DNA and history experts,  too. They say another candidate is the daughter of a past president and that she is a sister of a vice presidential candidate. These supporters are now also experts in determining the sincerity and fitness for office of a candidate just by his clothing and appearance. All these despite his unpresidential demeanor.

I have to give it to them. These experts are really experts in fomenting hate towards a candidate whose biggest fault to them is his 'lack' of charisma, his marriage to a broadcaster, and his being left out in the planning/implementation of the country's biggest military/police debacle. He is not faulted for reneging his citizenship, his penchant for cursing, for his illness, nor for his plunder.

To these experts, there are no conspiracy theories anymore. They have all been proven true.

Why the rabid hate on anyone who supports other candidates. Are they that committed or are they that 'kumitid ang utak'?

These experts refuse to see the bigger picture by forming conclusions from a large array of seemingly unrelated sources.

But to them, borrowing from Bill Clinton, I say this. It's the bigger picture stupid!.

It's easy to be frustrated with an aspect or two of our everyday lives. Traffic, for instance. When we get stuck in traffic for 4-5 hours each day, we are naturally frustrated. This frustration, by transference, is redirected to the candidate of the present administration.

Why is there so much traffic? There are too many cars. 

Why? Many can afford a car now. Many can afford to ride Uber despite the surge pricing. 

Where do they go? They go to high-end malls, gorge up in buffets, splurge on sales. 

Why? Unemployement is low, disposable income is high, business is doing well.

Why? Investment confidence is high, plunderers are in jail.

When Yolanda struck in 2013, it was the strongest typhoon in the world then. It is easy to get frustrated with the recovery efforts, because you somehow believe more could be done. But even ADB believes that Yolanda recovery efforts are faster than the Aceh recovery from the 2004 tsunami which left over 120,000 dead.

It is easy to get frustrated when you know of drug problems within your neighborhood, when basic traffic discipline is but a dream. When you think of it, the things that the expert supporters want are characteristics of a good local government official. These are what their candidate has as evidenced in his audience with a large business club yesterday.

The bigger picture is that we're better off now than six years ago. We must continue and sustain that. Their candidate is good for the local government, but we must doubt his grasp of the bigger picture.

Papogi points

PNoy scored many pogi points when he exposed the excessive pay of GMA appointees to a government corporation. He went on to ask them to resign. Now PNoy allies in the circus called the senate similarly want to score pogi points by shaking down other executives of government financial institutions. Led by chief clown Drilon, the senate questions the perks and privileges of the Bangko Sentral's Monetary Board. I would understand the questioning if Drilon was in Mars the past 20 years. But he has been around the political/government scene since I can remember. How can he not know about these perks? Why the fuss only now? Papogi points.

I agree there is imbalance in the government pay scale, much more so for the line bureaus. But the so called perks and privileges of some agencies have been there for so long. Taking them away will be a loss to those enjoying them. Increasing the low pays of the others will be more Pareto optimal. Increasing the welfare of many need not involve decreasing the welfare of others.

Who's afraid of the truth? Who wants a monopoly of commissions?

GMA herself said she's okay with the Truth Commission but her House allies wants it voided. Who's afraid of the truth anyway? Maybe if PNoy won't call it the Truth Commission and calls it the Davide Commission instead, then GMA ass-lickers won't raise a whimper. After all, GMA created other investigative bodies during her term.

Under GMA we had the Melo, Feliciano, Mayuga and Zenarosa Commissions. The Melo Commission, formed in 2006 to investigate media killings, was headed by former SC Justice now Comelec chairman Jose Melo. The Feliciano Commission (former SC Justice Florentino Feliciano), was formed in 2003 to look into Oakwood Mutiny. The Mayuga commission (Admiral Mayuga)looked into the military involvement in the Hello, Garci scandal. Early this year GMA formed the Zeñarosa Commission (CA Justice Monina Arevalo-Zeñarosa) to disband private armies after Maguindanao massacre.

So it appears that GMA allies are not afraid of commissions at all, only if they are named Truth.

It could also be that some people think of a commission as that form of payment to an agent for services rendered. And being so used to commissions during their boss's time, they just want all the commissions just for themselves.

Can the police eat 21 million pesos worth of hamburgers?

The new PAGCOR leadership thinks the previous administration's large food orders for the Philippine National Police (PNP) is irregular. The food orders were purportedly for policemen securing rallies and demonstrations for eight dates between January and June.

McDonald's quickly said the food orders were legitimate. It noted that dates indicated in the official receipts reflect the date of payment and not necessarily the date of the food delivery.

Over the radio, a police general belabored the excuse that policemen securing rallies were provided meals for the whole duration of the rally. But can we remember long rallies in the first half of the year? And even assuming that the dates do not reflect the rally dates, it is safe to assume that the rallies were held before those dates. Which means that the rallies were held before the elections. Could they possibly be campaign rallies? For which candidate or political party then? Who controlled PAGCOR during that time?

The 21 million peso bill translates to P2.625 million pesos per rally. Again assuming that they spent 500 pesos per policeman, a princely sum for a day's meal, that means more than 5000 policemen per rally day were fed. Can we remember a big rally that required one third of the police force to secure?

Can the police eat 21 million pesos worth of hamburgers? PNoy said "kung walang corrupt, walang mahirap". Conversely, PAGCOR-rupt, hindi mahirap.

P. Noy please don't be like this Hatoyama guy.

Yukio Hatoyama was forced to resign in disgrace as Japan's Prime Minister.

Just like P. Noy, Hatoyama won a huge mandate in the elections. Just like P. Noy, he is a scion of a prominent political family. He also has various and lengthy political experience. Just like P. Noy, he is also often accused (and is really guilty) of sartorial inelegance. The comparison better end there.

P. Noy should learn a lesson from the fate suffered by Hatoyama.

Many see Hatoyama as having allowed his historic mandate to erode on the minor issue of relocating an American military base. Analysts say he faltered on a lot of issues, including scandals over political financing; an inability to deliver on other campaign promises; and his administrations's failure to focus on matters affecting the economy.

The military base issue crystallized what went wrong with his nine-month old government. He seemed to waffle between appeasing Washington and assuring Okinawans that he would honor his campaign vows. Many Japanese saw his indecisiveness as a fatal flaw. His popularity plummetted largely because of this.

P. Noy -  be a strong and decisive president and deliver on your promises. The country deserves no less.

Mar's 800k votes hump.

Just 5 hours after the polls closed last Monday, Comelec released figures that say 57% of votes has been counted. Noynoy led Erap by over 3 million votes. Binay led by close to 800k votes over Mar.

As more votes are counted and transmitted, one would expect the lead to widen. It happened in the case of Noynoy. With 90% of votes in, his lead is now over 5 million. But in Binay and Mar's case, the lead just hovered around that 800k hump. After 3million votes and an 800k lead, Binay just coasted along. All the way to the finish?

Hmmp.

Post election thoughts

It appears Binay will win the VP contest. With 4M+ votes to count, he leads by just under 800k votes over Mar Roxas. Ever since the start of the counting, Binay had that consistent 800k lead. As more votes get counted, that lead stays the same. Wonder where that 800k came from? Regions 4 is so close to home and yet he did not take care of it.
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The total votes for president was close to a million more than the total votes for vice president. It means there are many people who did not vote for a VP. Or many VP votes were invalidated. Erap was caught on cam to having not voted for a VP. Probably his experience with GMA made him do it.
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Did Mar get overconfident? Maybe. The surveys said his lead over Loren was comfortable. And she looked she had nowhere to go. With INC's endorsement locked up a long time ago, they did not see Binay. Now Chiz feels like a kingmaker. He can claim his endorsement clinched it for Binay.
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Villar: Ako ay may sipag at tiyaga.
Gibo: Ako ay may galing at talino.
Noynoy: Wala yan sa mommy at daddy ko.
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Pinoys don't mind performers-turned-politicians-who-don't-perform as long as they are not tainted with corruption. Joey Marquez lost. Lito Lapid and Bong Revilla won. It also helped that they stayed away from GMA in this campaign.
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This election's vote is a vote against GMA. Gibo despite all his galing at talino lost big. Villar despite his billions and sipag at tiyaga lost billions. All because of the GMA connection. Erap the ex-convict was ahead of the two. Binay postured himself as anti-GMA. He branded Mar as pro-GMA. He leads as of now.
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Chiz enjoys his kingmaker role. But he better make sure that his VP behaves, or else he will go down with him.

My 2010 election experience - a tale of an almost disenfranchised

PCOS machine

My wife and I were at the polling precinct before 8am. We knew where the room was, we knew our sequence numbers, and we brought along a codigo of our choices. We were also aware that our precinct was clustered along with 4 others. We thought voting in this automated election will be a breeze. It wasn't. It was almost a frustrating exercise.

We went to the 2nd floor where our precinct is. The actual polling place (wehre the PCOS machine is) is on the first room on that building wing. Our cluster is made up of that precinct and the next 4 rooms. But voters are made to line up past to the next room where they give out numbers. Election helpers call out the numbers and the voters will transfer back to the 1st room to vote. Only up to 10 voters are admitted into the room.

Comelec again made a lapse in judgment. When they clustered precincts because to minimize the number of PCOS machines to be used, they should have allowed more than 10 voters at a time. In the manual era, when there was no clustering, they allowed 10 voters at a time. Today, with clustering - effectively making a precinct 5x as big as before, allowing only 10 at a time will naturally create long queues. I think they should let in 50 at a time. If 50 is deemed too big, then 25-35 is certainly better than 10.

Anyway, I finally got to the voting room after an hour and a half. I counted more than 20 markers on the watchers table, including the ones being used by the voters. There were also enough desks for the voters to use. Comelec could have allowed more than 10 at a time. Is there a plan to disenfranchise voters?  I finished marking my ballot in just over 2 minutes, carefully not marking outside the of oval shape. I heard comments that ballots with shading outside the oval are rejected by the PCOS. When the PCOS screen said "Congratulations!", I managed a smile despite the tiresome wait. I have done my part to change this administration.

Final thoughts on this election

People should vote for change. This administration has brought us Joc-joc, Garci, ZTE, Neri, Winston, Abalos, C5, ad nauseam. If we don't vote to change all that, they will not only go scot-free, we're bound to get more of that.

People should also vote for a vice president and senators who will help accomplish that change. Villar will lose but he will still be a senator with a chance to be senate president. Congress will still be controlled by GMA, who herself will be a congressman with a chance to be Speaker. In that scenario, President Noynoy can be impeached easily. That tack will be pursued by GMA and her minions much more so if the VP is on their side. That's why I think they're buttering up to Binay (Loren is so far behind). He will be easier for this admin to work on. So, to avoid all that possibility, the country will be better off if the whole team for change gets elected - the president, vice president, and the whole senate slate.
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People give more credence to self rated poverty surveys than to official government poverty statistics. After all, poverty can be argued as a just state of mind. So, despite the catchy jingle and all his proclamations of his poverty the big question is why don't people believe that Villar was poor?
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Gibo won handily in a mock election at a government office. This is far, far, off the nationwide survey results from the regular pollsters. Some say this is because the people in this office are technocrats and they go for technocrats like Gibo. Hmm, maybe. But many people here think like bureaucrats. I think that people in this office have found their comfort zone. They are very comfortable in their positions that they want the status quo to remain. Garci, Joc-joc, Abalos, GSIS fiasco, etc do not bother them at all.

As we comfort the disturbed, we should also disturb the comfortable.

Ang bise presidente ko may B - betkabs / Binay admits infidelity

Nobody cared much when Mon Tulfo wrote about the wife of a candidate for a national position who found out that her husband has a fashion model for a girlfriend. It was almost a dead giveaway as it mentioned that the photos were given to the candidate’s wife by a close rival

of their son who is aspiring for a local post. Plus, the second item in that column was about the mayoralty contest in Makati being a a three-cornered, close fight among Binay's son and 2 others.

Now cheesy photos of Chiz's vice president surfaced on the Internet. Faced with these, Binay himself has admitted that he had an extramarital affair. In the spirit of transparency, it's time for Chiz to update his commercial endorsement of Binay - "Ang bise president ko may B - betkabs! Ang bise presidente mo ba meron din?".

Who's afraid of a parallel count?

Who's afraid of a parallel count? While many sectors, including 6 of the 9 presidential candidates, propose a parallel manual count in the computerized elections, the Comelec say it is not necessary. The other 3 candidates (Villar, Teodoro, and Gordon) share Malacanan's stand for not favoring one. The 6 are afraid their votes won't be counted right by the machines.

Teodoro, being the official administration candidate, supports the administration stand. Dick is having a limp stand. Villar is being a gracious guest of the administration.

Why is it needed? A parallel run is one of the ways to change from an existing system to a new one, in this case from manual to computerized elections. A manual count will be used to compare the output of the computerized run and prove the reliability of the new system. Machines failed in the advanced voting and some security features are not fully implemented like UV markings. These factors merit the need for a parallel count.

Why we should not be afraid of a manual count? A manual count will just validate the results of the computerized count. The possible scenario of results from the two counts not matching is not reason enough to stop manual count. The two counts should match anyway. Discrepancies should be easy to explain, like shading less than 50% of the space.

Why are some officials so brazen in their attempts to rig procurement contracts? It is a game of follow the leader. Most probably they know something that make the higher-ups beholden to them, kaya malakas ang loob nila. The same way past officials got away too. Their mindset must be, bakit sila lang? They should soon change their official name to COMOLLECT.

Villar desperate for a Black Swan Event?

Manolo Quezon wrote yesterday about Cory's death being a Black Swan Event. A Black Swan Event is something no one expected, and that no one foresaw, and viewed as impossible. Cory's death, MLQ3 says led to our Great Awakening and the Great Remembering. Or shall we say re-awakening and re-remembering that still buoys Noynoy on top of the surveys.

Villar now thrusts her frail octogenarian mother crying to the public "stop picking on my son". Desperate move. Instead of answering squarely the latest accusation of his rivals, he acts like a bullied kid, makes sumbong to his mother and asks her to make the accusers stop. The melancholic paawa effect does not stop there. She nostalgically sang "Stardust" and ends up sobbing.

Politicking? No, if you ask them. But what if this is desperate move is more sinister than it appears? The 86 year old woman should have been insulated from the dirty world of politics. It's a give and take game. Spare the old woman the aches of hurtful campaigning. It now seems Villar's sisters are as desperate as he is, allowing their dear mom to be dragged into this.

Villar and company must be reminded that a Black Swan Event is not premeditated. Noynoy certainly did not want his mother dead so he can be president. I hope no one is that desperate.

The people know GMA's color

This micromanaging government feigns innocence that it wanted the prime suspect in the Maguindanao massacre to turn yellow and endorse Noynoy. Everyone knows it could happen without the approval of higher ups.

What I find more intriguing is the new colors worn by the other suspects. The suspects now wear yellow, as shown in the photo when they were escorted by jail officers to the hearing at Camp Bagong Diwa in Taguig yesterday.

Before, suspects were shown wearing other colors. Just last month, suspects in a drug case wore green when they were presented to media.

For a long time, suspects used to wear orange. The last photo shows PGMA and suspected terrorists who were presented to the media.

But no matter what color they try suspects to project, to a man, GMA's motives are suspect. We all know her true colors. After June 30, the people will make her wear the usual orange.

Ampatuan endorses Villar

The prime suspect in the Maguindanao massacre, Andal Ampatuan, Jr., is endorsing Manny Villar. Ampatuan wears orange-blue rubber baller ID bands of Villar and NP senatorial bet Gilbert Remulla. "Ito (shows baller bands) ang kandidato ko," Ampatuan Jr. told reporters during his transfer to Camp Bagong Diwa.

Read the full story here.

April Fool's, is the joke on Gibo?

Gibo resigned as party chairman to protest against the lack of support from GMA. He is the 'official' candidate of the administration but he has not received the support he needs from the president. In February, he spent just P60 million on TV ads while Villar has splurged P120 million. GMA herself has put on more pasasalamat posters around Metro Manila

The Inquirer today put up a story on the breakup of the Arroyo party. It may later retract the story and claim it's an April Fool prank. But the signs are there -  the defections, the lack of funds, and then Gibo's resignation.

The breakup came after a survey confirmed the slide of Villar in voters' preference. Noynoy now has a commanding 9pt lead. The momentum is starting to build up again. In no time at all, the lead could go up that cheating will be very hard. Perhaps in panic, the administration decided to consolidate its support to a single candidate resulting to defections to its not so secret candidate. Still in denial, the galing at talino but dense candidate still doesn't get it. The joke is on Gibo.

Why not Gibo?

While many concede that Gibo is the most intelligent among the presidential candidates, many are also quick to add that Marcos was also a very intelligent man. Marcos made intelligence a bad characteristic. But what really turns off many voters against Gibo is everyone's perception that should he win he will only protect Gloria's Interests Before Others.

His comment on criticisms against Mikey Arroyo's nomination as representative of a party-list group of security guards does not help erase the public perception one bit. He said "Is it legal or not? It's legal. Wala tayong magagawa (We can't do anything about it)."

Gloria and party has always bastardized and flouted institutions. They did it in the impeachment process, in the Chief Justice selection. Now they are doing it in the party-list elections.

So why not Gibo? Do we want six more years of Gloria?

The candidates - up close and personal

The Philippine Star conducted one-on-one interviews with the presidential candidates. Sara Soliven de Guzman was able to observe their mannerisms, body language, eye movements and their general behavior whenever crucial, controversial, irritating, or easy questions were asked.

Her general observations on Villar, Erap and Gibo fit in the general expectations or their known reputations. It is her observations of Noynoy which are more revealing, as they do not generally conform to the 'rumors'.

According to her, Manny Villar brings in an “entrepreneurial spirit” in the presidential race. He was frank, earnest, tactless. He had wit, intelligence and fiery drive. He surely will never run away from this fight!

Joseph “Erap” had a congenial presence. He is a seasoned, charming, candid, friendly politician. Erap is the “most charming” presidential candidate. He’s got the will to survive (in this race)!

Gilbert Teodoro had no “airs” whatsoever. He was very modest, friendly, and docile. He had a very pleasing personality, very respectful, quite spirited, serious and intelligent. He is the “politician” in the purest form of the word amongst the presidential candidates. He thinks fast, quite cunning and calculating, very sharp and clever. He is very convincing and irresistible.

Noynoy Aquino was generally kind, courteous, soft-spoken and tranquil. He exuded confidence especially when it came to affairs of the state. He is not naïve. He is the “pure statesman” in this presidential race. He is like a walking encyclopedia. Amongst all the candidates, he knows that a revolutionary change is just what the world and the people need. His vision has clearly put him way ahead of the rest.

I think I know who Ms. Soliven is voting for. I think we should go for him too.

Villar's net worth rises faster than GNP

A presidential campaign costs hundreds of millions if not billions. Manny Villar reportedly spent over half a billion in ads alone in October-December last year. Yet if he wins, he stands to earn just 60k pesos a month, which is in a 6-year term a little over 3million after taxes. Villar's spending is way over the top but the other candidates are also spending a small fortune.

Using available data from the Internet, below is a table of the candidates net worth over the years and the Philippines GNP. The data comes from a PCIJ article on the candidates rise in wealth despite poll expenses. The Philippine GNP data is from the IMF's World Economic Outlook. I used the previous available data to fill up the years with no available data. Then I prepared a simple line graph to see the relative rise in the figures.

As was observed by the PCIJ, the candidates’ rise in net worth typically came after an election year - while they were supposedly serving in office, while they should not have benefited from business from which they should have divested their interests. PCIJ also observed that the spike in their net worth even defied the slump in both local and global economy because of the financial crisis in 1997 and 2008.

The graph clearly show that Villar's (and to some extentGibo's ) rise in net worth is higher than the rise in GNP. The red line shows the Philippines GNP in current prices, the orange line is Villar's net worth, the green is Gibo's, Erap's is the dark orange, Dick's is the pink one, Noynoy's is the pitiful yellow languishing at the bottom. Erap's net worth rose sharply after getting elected in 1998. Gibo's net worth rose because of some lucky inheritance.  What is Villar's excuse?

	Noynoy	Erap	Gordon	Gibo	Villar	Phil., GNP (US$)
1992		3.41	8.3		75.43	52.982
1993		3.41	8.3		75.43	54.368
1994		3.41	8.3		75.43	64.084
1995		3.41	11.87		75.43	75.525
1996		3.41	11.87		319.92	84.371
1997		3.41	11.87		319.92	83.736
1998	8.7	3.41	11.87	80.17	319.92	66.596
1999	8.7	35.86	11.87	80.17	319.92	76.157
2000	8.7	35.86	11.87	80.17	319.92	75.912
2001	8.7	35.86	11.87	74.54	319.92	71.216
2002	11.98	35.86	24.92	74.54	481.5	76.814
2003	11.98	35.86	24.92	74.54	481.5	79.634
2004	11.98	35.86	24.92	74.54	481.5	86.930
2005	13.46	35.86	24.92	232.43	759.82	98.829
2006	13.46	35.86	24.92	232.43	759.82	117.534
2007	13.94	35.86	26.52	232.43	759.82	144.043
2008	13.94	35.86	26.52	232.43	1050.00	166.909

PLAK! Hindi lahat pera ang katapat

Manny Villar thinks that everyone has a price. Unfortunately, Enrile, Erap and now Gordon, prove that this is not true. The way rumors circulate that he is GMA's hidden candidate make many believe it is not a rumor anymore because everyone's saying it. Villar sorely needs the services of someone like GMA's Defensor.

Gordon says he is fed up with Villar camp's propensity to use his money to get what he wants, including the presidency. "You can buy some of the people some of the time, but you can't buy all the people all of the time." The expected reaction from Villar is the usual hollow blanket denial. Enrile and Erap might have some credibility problems but somehow people believe them when they said Villar tried to buy them off. Now that Gordon is saying the same,  more people will be inclined to believe it.

It's Gordon's integrity against Villar's integrity. Let's see how Villar buys out the story.