Trend shows Pacquiao's punch stats on the decline

Here's a compilation (Table 1) of Pacquiao punch statistics from the last Morales fight up to Bradley II. The stats are culled from boxingscene.com and boxrec.com. I also compiled the punch stats of his opponents (Table 2). From the two tables, we get the average jabs and power punches thrown per round (Table 3).

Table 3 is then plotted on a line chart to give us Figure 1. The adage that styles make fights might explain the up and down fluctuations in the chart. We fit a trend line over the points. Excel does fitting a polynomial trend line well. From the trend lines, we see that Pacquiao clearly peaked in 2008-2009 when he fought dela Hoya-Hatton-Cotto. While Pacquiao won over Clottey, that fight was the start of his decline.

We also produced a trend line of Pacquiao's punches that landed (Figure 2). This chart shows an even faster decline. We plotted his accuracy too (Figure 3) . And we get a slight declining trend as well.

Finally, Table 4 shows the occasions and areas where he outworked his opponent. Pacquiao generally outworks his opponents except when he fights counter-punchers. The 2nd Marquez fight and both Bradley fights show that counter-punchers are busier than Pacquiao. This tells us that Floyd Mayweather, Jr., most probably will outwork him too.

In the post-fight interview, Pacquiao said that there are two more years in his boxing journey. Incidentally, there are also two more years before the next elections where he can run for senator. He also said recently that his ideal weight class is junior welterweight. That effectively gives him and Mayweather another reason not to fight each other. But that will also pit Pacquiao against the likes of Matthysse, Danny Garcia, Keith Thurman, and his former sparmate Shawn Porter. Not to mention Khan, Provodnikov, and Bradley again.

If Pacquaio cannot/will not fight Mayweather and if the prospect of beating FMJ at this point (more so next year) is dim, I suggest that Manny retire. There is no point in him being a stepping stone of the new light-welterweights to shine, like Barrera and Morales did for him.

The data set used for the tables and charts above is here.

Table 1. Pacquiao punch stats

Table 2. Pacquiao opponents' punch stats

Table 3. Pacquiao's average no. of punches per round

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figure 3. Accuracy

Table 4

White hair chronicles - Smokin' Joe Frazier, RIP

"Joe Frazier is the greatest fighter of all time, next to me", said Muhammad Ali. Coming from the greatest himself, that is the ultimate testament to the greatness of Joe Frazier.

Frazier and the heavyweights of his time hooked me to the sport. As a little school boy during the golden days of boxing, I was awed by the the size and power of the great fighters.

Ali was confident, brash, charismatic and glib. On the other hand, Frazier's silence could be mistaken for humility. In many ways, his smaller size compared to the giants endeared him to the the fans. He was the silent underdog.

I remember his fights with George Foreman. He was the little man but the favorite in those fights. Frazier won almost of his fights by KO, yet when he tangled with George it was as if he fought four men. He got clobbered with seemingly slow but definitely sledgehammer-like blows.

But Joe will always be associated with the Ali trilogy. The last fight being the Thrilla in Manila. Unlike in these days when people have to cough up hundreds of pesos to see the fights live on Sundays or else endure tons of commercials; fights in Frazier's time were shown live on free TV. And with no commercials, at all.

My father was going to watch the Thrilla live in Araneta. He had bleacher tickets that still cost a princely sum back then. The fight was held on a school day. I was in a government run school and we were still under martial law. Many students were also anxious about the fight, and to our surprise the usually uptight school authorities allowed us to watch the fight. They even provided a small TV.


It was great back and forth fight, richly deserving to be dubbed the fight of the century. Great result for boxing. But bad result for Joe Frazier. RIP, Smokin' Joe.

Floyd may not weather Manny

For all his posturings about him being the greatest, Floyd Mayweather, Jr.'s refusal to commit to fight Manny Pacquiao betrays his insecurities about losing that 0 loss record. While the whole boxing world wants to witness the fight, Floyd himself wants none of it. In news item from Reuters.com, Floyd said he doesn't need Pacquiao.

Despite his masterful but controversial conquest of Victor Ortiz, Floyd talked about his dominance in the past tense. "I don't need him. Where was Pacquiao in 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 when I was dominating the game? He never asked me (for a fight) when I was in my twenties or when I was in my teens." For the information of Floyd, who is now 34, in 1996 Manny fought at 113 pounds or 18 below Floyd's fighting weight then.

Floyd added that "a fighter just don't get to 25 years old and all of a sudden he becomes great," referring to Pacquaio. Maybe he just heard of Pacquiao when Pacquiao was 25 in 2004. At that point, Pac still fought at 126 and Floyd at 135. Pacquiao's star was on the rise having begun the streak against Mexicans that earned him the Mexicutioner tag. But Pacquiao's ascent to stardom actually began 2 1/2 years before when he wrested the crown from Ledwahba.

Maybe Ortiz before the headbutt made Floyd realize what pressure Pac can bring to him. Maybe Floyd suddenly felt he can be hit now. That's why he is keeping his distance. Shrewd kid.

Mayweather-Ortiz shows Floyd true side - good, crude, and rude

I spent P501 yesterday to watch the satellite feed of the Ortiz-Mayweather tiff at the Gateway Cinema. It was money well spent. The undercard was superb. I finally got the chance to see young Mexican legend in the making, Saul Canelo Alvarez, fight. His handlers seem to take good care of his young career, careful not to feed him to the old lions just yet. At this point, he still doesn't have what it takes to get past the likes of Cotto and the other veteran super welterweights.

I also got to see Erik Morales fight again. At this stage of his resurrected career, watching him fight is like watching an old Erik Morales fight in slow motion. His body, though not flabby, doesn't have the abs present in most other 140 pounder. His is the body of an old man. He won convincingly against a late substitute but not after being threatened in the early rounds. I'm glad he won the race to be the first Mexican to win titles in 4 weight divisions. He does not have the same arrogance exhibited by Barrera and Marquez.

Now the Mayweather-Ortiz fight started out as the mismatch indicated by the 5-1 fight odds. No matter how hard Ortiz tried, he cannot get inside the crafty defense of Floyd Jr while getting repeatedly pummeled with hard rights. In the 4th, he managed to get Floyd on the ropes but he was still not connecting cleanly. In a fit of disgust, maybe, he intentionally head butted Floyd, promptly earning him a point deduction. Then the bizarre happened. He apologized-kissed Floyd-touched gloves-tried to kiss Floyd again-while the referee glanced towards the timekeeper-and-BOOM-BOOM-Floyd connects with a 1-2 left right combo that floors him.The left photo shows a clueless Joe Cortez.

It was not an illegal punch. The headbutt was illegal. But the ending soured further Floyd's image. It was sucker punch, but worse than the one Floyd did to Mosley. And of course Ortiz, with a guaranteed  US$2.5 million, won't protest the outcome. It was inevitable anyway. The bizarre events just made ended it sooner.

The fight should be an eye opener for the PacMan-Roach tandem. They should prepare for Floyd's fast right straights. They should plan ways to penetrate the shifty shoulder rolls. And most importantly Pac should learn to always put his hands up to prevent those sucker punches. In the Mosley fight, PacMan acceded to all the Mosley touch glove gestures. Against Floyd, he should touch gloves with arms straight out in front.

I stayed on to watch the post-fight interview. Floyd went into an expletive laden rant against veteran broadcaster Larry Merchant. He initially rambled on about thanking God, blah-blah, but Merchant cut him off to ask why despite being in control of the fight he had to resort to that unfair 1-2 combo. Then Floyd shockingly began his tirade. Perhaps it was his way to avoid the tough questions about the Pac fight.

This just shows the true side of Floyd. He is a good fighter, probably the best of this era. In the eventual Pac fight, Floyd will be the odds-on favorite. But this also shows the true nature of Floyd. In the run up to this fight, his supporters attribute his aberrant behavior to his marketing savvy. They say his bad boy image sells tickets. Maybe. But what about his cheap shots? He sucker punched Mosley too. When asked about his behavior and his unexciting fights and his avoidance of a Pac fight, he throws off in a rant. He is not selling fights in those post fight interviews. He just shows who he really is.

Now compare that to Pacquiao. Pac touches gloves when asked. He even picks up opponents he just floored. At times he refuses to knock out a completely helpless foe but still manages to give an entertaining fight. When asked about a possible Mayweather bout, he replies gracefully about it being a promoter's job and fighting who is lined up for him.

Compared to our Pacman, Floyd the fighter is good, but as sportsman, he is crude and as a human being, he is rude.

The Pacquiao Non-Knockdown in Pictures

The following screencaps of the 10th round Pacquiao knockdown in the Mosley fight show that it was really not a knockdown at all. Referee Kenny Bayless later apologized for the miscall. Mosley stepped on Pac's foot, and as Pac stepped back, Mosley pushed (not punched) Pac away.

The 'knockdown' woke up PacMan and it made the remainder of the fight interesting. He was already in the middle of the ring several seconds before the start of the 11th, eager to resume the fight, while Mosley's seconds were still on the ring.

Despite the call, two of the judges gave PacMan the round, while the third gave it to Mosley 10-9. PacMan can do no wrong.

If PacMan seemed to grope for the right combinations in the middle rounds, he definitely groped Paris right after the fight. PacMan is a god.

Manny Pacquiao deified

What Manny Pacquaio wants, Manny Pacquiao gets.

When PacMan demanded yellow gloves for the Mosley fight, yellow gloves he got, even if traditionally only black or red gloves are used. He also requested his fans to wear yellow to support what he calls the biggest fight of his life - the fight to eradicate poverty. And us fans wore yellow alright as requested.

Congrats to the Filipino Flash

Congratulations to Nonito "The Filipino Flash" Donaire for the very impressive win over the feared Mexican warrior Fernando "Ko-Chulito" Montiel. The screen caps show the grotesque shape of Montiel's head at the moment of impact of the fateful left hook.

I was rooting for Donaire but I was half expecting a Montiel win despite his being a huge underdog. It turned out that the more than 2-1 odds was well deserved. What was surprising was the quick violent ending.

I think the referee erred in allowing the fight to continue after Montiel seemed to beat the count. Maybe the referee, when he motioned Donaire to a neutral corner, didn't see Montiel's convulsive twitches. But when Montiel fell again as he was trying to get up, it was enough again to stop the fight. Then when the dazed Montiel didn't respond when ordered to come forward, it again should have been enough to wave off the fight. But instead, the referee just wiped the gloves and let the fight continue. Only when the hapless Montiel defenselessly ate two more Donaire bombs that the fight was stopped. Had the fight been closer and went on longer, I'm sure that referee would have done Montiel more favors.

Lost in the euphoria of the win are the side stories leading to the fight. There were rumors that Donaire was a pound overweight and was given an hour to shed off the weight. The rumors led to speculations that he could climb the ring dehydrated. It could also be the reason why the odds dropped from 4-1 to 2-1.

There was also a slight issue over the hand wraps, reminiscent of the Margarito-Mosley fight. Donaire tweeted that Montiel's camp asked a re-wrap. I'm not sure how he tweeted with a gloved hand.

What's next for the Filipino Flash?

He dislodged Sergio Martinez for third place in the pound-for-pound list. He is the youngest in the top five. With Pacquiao and Mayweather (inactive) advancing in years, he is ready to be the top P4P. Experts give him good chances over the younger kids in the top ten like JuanMa Lopez. He might be on top for a long reign.

I hope there's an alias change. There's been a Flash before, Flash Elorde, the most successful Filipino boxer before Pacquiao stormed the scene. The Filipino Flash monicker for Donaire is doubly unimaginative.

Next, I hope he reconciles with his family. No matter what.

I also hope he talks less. I know he walks the talk. But he talks too much. Sound bites are better. Talking less will also make him sound more humble. Stay humble. Don't be airy Donaire. The fans will love you more.

Pacman gobbles up the Tijuana Tornado

As expected, Manny Pacquiao won over Antonio Margarito, despite giving up 17 pounds in weight, 5 inches in height, and 6 inches in reach. Margarito is the biggest opponent Pacman ever faced, while Pacman is the smallest Margarito opponent in 15 years. The sportscasters who covered the fight never ran out of superlatives in talking about our sports hero. This should goad the egoistic Mayweather into accepting a fight.

The victory will be the talk of the town for at least a week. We will be discussing not just the boxing win per se since the Pacquiao phenomenon transcends over many aspects of Filipino life. Pacman's interest in show business, other sports, product endorsements, and politics mean Filipinos will be talking about many other highlights of the fight.

- The inclusion of politicians in his entourage leaves a bad taste in the mouth. Panira talaga ng eksena pag kasama ang may sabit.

-  I saw an overly excited Kenneth Duremdes waving a flag in the crowd.
-  Dr. Belo is doing a tremendous job on Jinkee. She now looks prettier than her identical twin sister.
- The singer who sang the Philippine national anthem was doing it right until the last 2 words, but I'm nitpicking.
- Still the surest way to make men stand erect is make voluptuous blondes wearing pekpek shorts sing the national anthem.
- Margarito's son looked nervous before the fight but his parents were beaming. Perhaps he knows what happened to Pac's previous victims. His parents surely know what 3 million dollars is.
- Pacman may have indicated that he is losing interest in boxing. He did not go for the knockout and said they are not there to kill each other. What happened to the killer's instinct that Pacman fans knew?
- Pacman is a big loser from the appreciation of the peso. His 20 million dollar purse is now effectively 40 million pesos lower. But it is still like winning the biggest lotto jackpot ever twice over.
-Pacman is the man! Unlike before the Barrera fight when nobody, even Michael Buffer, cannot pronounce Pacquiao, everybody knows how to say Pacquiao.
some photos from Yahoo

Mayweather beats Mosley, money shames sugar

I just watched Mayweather vs. Mosley at the SM Cinema in Baguio. It was an impressive unanimous decision win for Money. It was a sour performance by Sugar. Shane upped his attack in the second round. He caught Money with a good punch that almost sent him down. In the third round, Money stepped up his offense. Shame had no counter-attack for the rest of the way. In the judges' cards, Shane won only the second round. When Money was asked if he's willing to bend on his demand for blood tests so the Pacquiao fight can materialize. He basically said no. After his impressive win over someone of took blood tests, he is on a higher ground to demand such tests.

I think Money shoots up to number one in the pound for pound ranking, overtaking Pacquiao. I don't see Pacman giving in to the blood test demands. Even if he loses in the elections, I don't think he'll fight Money.

Pacquiao - Clottey The Un-Event

The Pacquiao-Clottey fight was dubbed 'The Event' but it was uneventful. The only highlight of the bout was the illegal pompyang punch thrown by the frustrated pound-for-pound king in the fourth round. He must have seen a lot of FPJ and Lito Lapid movies in his youth.

The cinema where I watched was packed full. When I bought my ticket about 3 weeks ago, there was just a handful of seats taken. Unlike the previous Pacquiao fights in the same mall where they had three cinemas for the fight, this time they used just one. But in in the fight venue at Arlington, Texas, they sold out all tickets, and more.

And unlike the previous fights staged in Las Vegas, there were few Hollywood celebrities present. Though they showed a lot of presumably Texas sports celebrities who are obscure to Pinoy fans.

The highlights were not from the fight. The Texas Cowboy cheerleaders really look good. They evoke memories of the Debbie Does Dallas movie and its copycats/sequels of my youth. Their rendition of the US national anthem is surprisingly simple but good. Their skimpy outfit and singing of the anthem should make Americans stand erect.

Which cannot be said of Arnel Pineda's version of the Lupang Hinirang. After the controversy about Martin Nievera in the Pacquiao-Hatton fight, the non-controversial version of La Diva, and the general perception that Kyla's version (in Pacquiao-Barrera 2) is the best, I thought Arnel will follow tradition. After all, he said so himself. But it seems the tradition now is to not follow tradition. So after following the standard arrangement in the first few verses of the anthem, Arnel Pineda decided to show the world the a la Steve Perry version. For that expect him to get the flak in the coming days.

Manny Pacquiao on the Jimmy Kimmel Show 2

Manny Pacquiao again appeared in the Jimmy Kimmel show, this time to promote his fight against Joshua Clottey. The first time he appeared on the show he was rumored to bring along Krista Ranillo. He sang "Sometimes When We Touch" in that show. This time to make amends to his wife, he reportedly brought along Jinkee. And to top it all, he sang a reaffirming "Nothing's Gonna Change My Love for You".

Before his song number, Manny took a dig against Mayweather for the Fraud Gayweather's insistence for a blood test close to the fight. Manny said the boxers' job is to fight and not to make the rules. He repeated his willingness to fight anybody.

Pacquiao vs Clottey ticket sales slow

Two weeks before the event, tickets for Pacquiao vs Clottey fight move slower than the previous Pac bestsellers. At SM malls they offer a complimentary cinema pass when you buy a Pac-Clottey ticket. I counted the number of tickets sold thus far at an SM cinema as indicated by the blocked markings on the seat plan. I counted less than fifty.

Maybe because many feel Pacman will win handily. Odd at Las Vegas stand at 5-1. Arum had to come out and say Clottey can upset Manny, just to generate some interest. At a boxing forum, nobody wants a sig bet against Pacman unlike his fights before when many are willing to risk two months of annoyance in posting up Pac sigs. At Club Filipino, I heard tickets cost less than 500 pesos including buffet breakfast and sales are still slow.

Maybe fans will just watch the the numerous free showings that will be sponsored by candidates. This is election season after all. I should have thought of that when I bought tickets yesterday.

This could make the Pac-Floyd happen

Much blame has been passed around for the fight not happening. It's late now, but I suggest a possible compromise to the fiasco.

Pacman balked at the idea of blood tests close to the fight but agreed to a post fight test. Floyd agreed to a $10M/pound overweight penalty.

Floyd should accept the after-fight blood test as Pac counter suggested. Then if anybody is found dirty (for any reason - drugs, steroids, whatever), the penalty can be $15M or something that would really hurt, like the $10M per pound penalty for anybody overweight.

That would mean withholding the purses until the test results are in. But that should make everyone happy. Pac because he can clear his name, Floyd because he got what he wanted, and especially the fans because the fight materialized.

Manny's conquests

Here are Manny Pacquiao's conquests on and off the ring. Manny definitely knows where to put his hands in every opportunity.

Manny, Please stay good 3

Manny Pacquiao arrived to a hero's welcome in Manila. He was given yet another award by the GMA. This time he was conferred the rank of Datu, a fine addition to his plenty of datungs.

Manny and wife Jinkee kissed in front of the media after their arrival. They evaded the Krista affair issue. Jinkee said she cried during the homily because she missed their children. Anyway - Jinkee 1, Krista 0.

Pacquiao will have a tough time versus Mayweather

As I expected, Mayweather ran roughshod over Marquez. The Pretty Boy was simply much faster, sleeker, and mas magulang. And the fellow who gave Pacquiao fits in their two fights had no answer to the bigger Mayweather. The easy Mayweather win was an impressive fight for the two boxers. It was not boring at all, despite the virtual shutout.

So, how will Pacquiao fare against Mayweather? Marquez lost two controversial fights against Pacquiao. They fought on the same weight classes over the years, although Pacquiao started out much smaller. But Marquez was able to hold his own against Pacman. Against the naturally bigger Mayweather, the story was drastically different. They were in different fighting classes.

I have to give props to Marquez. He tried to make a go of it. But his best was not enough. Mayweather can rightfully claim to be the best fighter of all time. But not necessarily the most endearing or the most exciting. He can beat them all. Period.

If Pacquiao fights Mayweather, Pacman must be wary of the left hook. And he must counter with his own left or upper. In short he must be perfect on that night. Then he will have a chance.

In the meantime, Pac's corner will have to consider not letting Cotto get too much weight advantage over their fighter. In this fight, Mayweather visibly outweighed Marquez by more than 10 lbs. Manny, for his part, should start training seriously. With everything else equal, a good natural welterweight will always beat a good natural featherweight, as Marquez learned tonight. A superb training regimen/ discipline for this fight will make the difference for our pambansang kamao. For all Filipinos' sake, all showbiz/politician leeches, this goes to his network too, tantanan niyo muna si Pacman. Train in Batanes, for pete's sake.

Marquez 142, Mayweather 146, and it's a welterweight fight?

At the weigh-in this morning (Manila time), Juan Manuel Marquez weighed in at 142 lbs., while Floyd Mayweather, Jr. tipped the scales at 146. Wtf? This is a welterweight fight where the limit is 147 lbs. It turns out that there is a supposed catch-weight at 144 lbs.

JMM looked flabby even if he's just 142. He could bulk up overnight as fighters do come fight time. But that will make him flabbier, and softer, and slower. There is even lesser chance for him to win.

FMJ looked ripped and sweaty, but he doesn't look weak. He will be quick. He can add up more poundage overnight and still be comfortable tomorrow. He will win within the distance.

It looks like FMJ will pay a fine for coming in above 144. But he doesn't care, rightly claiming it's a welterweight fight anyway. The concept of catch weights foul up boxing.

Come November, when PacMan fights Cotto at a catchweight of 145 (in another welterweight title fight), Cotto can show up at above 145, pay the fines, and enjoy an advantage. What then are the weight classes for? Hopefully, PacMan learns a lesson from the beating JMM will get tomorrow. PacMan can opt not to fight Cotto if Cotto gets above 145.

Deserving and undeserving

Congrats to Kobe and the Lakers. They deserve every bit of the accolades that come now. The Magic deserve to lose. With Lee's botched lay-up in game 2, Howard's missed free throws and the bad defense against Fisher's 3-pt shot in game 3, they do not deserve to win.

Gasol has toughened up a lot since last year's debacle against Garnet. And Howard softened up, perhaps the previous series' exposed him. Perhaps the law of averages that was absent against the Cavs caught up with the Magic. Lewis and Terkoglu can't pull out rabbits from their hats now.

In a similar vein, in the PBA, Rain Or Shine says TY to TY Tang for the ala-Horry and Fisher 3pt shot that gave them the deserving win over the deserving-to-lose Purefoods. When you bench your best and highest paid player, you immediately lose at least 25% of your productivity. When you do that for the last 3 quarters, you do not deserve to win.

Turning to boxing, Miguel Cotto deserve a fight against Pacquiao after fending off Clottey's challenge. Cotto fought 9 rounds bleeding from a nasty cut on his eyebrow. Clottey was not able to capitalize on the wound brought by an accidental head butt. The fight was close and could have gone either way. People wouldn't mind a draw. But Clottey suffered a flash knockdown in the last seconds of the 1st round after doing very well in the first 2.5 minutes. For that carelessness he doesn't deserve to win.

The cut clearly bothered Cotto. But if he fights like that against Pacquiao, he does not deserve to win.