Climate change spooks weather bureau - Hopeless PAG-ASA VII

Climate change has made weather forecasting doubly hard. The Philippines now have four seasons, dry, very dry, wet, and very wet. The agency hardest hit by climate change is the PAG-ASA. The Philippine weather bureau, long ridiculed for wrong forecasts, continues to suffer setbacks with its weather forecasts. The people don't mind though. We have learned to expect the opposite of their predictions. We continue to prepare for the worst, but often, PAG-ASA's predictions of very bad weather do not come true.

Typhoon Pepeng was supposed to veer away from Luzon. But it came back a number of times, pouring rains that necessitated the opening of dams, causing much destruction of lives and property. Of course, PAG-ASA does not have Doppler radars to determine rain volume, but that's for the rain volume. Is the Doppler also needed to predict the typhoon's path?

Before Pepeng, typhoon Ondoy was not advertised as it was. In many other times, PAG-ASA raised the alarms for impending strong typhoons. Signals were raised, classes were suspended, only for the sun to shine mightily the next day. PAG-ASA is the weather bureau who cried wolf.

With typhoon Ramil, PAG-ASA once again raised the signal and even hinted of a signal no.4. The country, particularly the northern part, prepared for the onslaught and prayed to high heavens to spare the country. The weather gods listened and once again PAG-ASA was red faced. Other weather agencies predicted Ramil will veer away, PAG-ASA expected it to hit us. Kaya ang iba nagsasabing huwag nang umasa sa PAG-ASA - 'wag asa.

But wait, if we want to be spared of a typhoon's wrath, we have just to make PAG-ASA predict a landfall, and the typhoon will go away. This space has been underestimating the value of the agency. PAG-ASA is not hopeless after all. My apologies.

Hopeless PAG-ASA

When typhoon "Emong" hit land early this month, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services (PAG-ASA) chief weather forecaster said, “Let us be prepared, It is the start of the storm season in the Philippines.” The welcome rains came but not in torrential downpour to quench the scorched earth. So a day after, he made another statement - “The rains may be here, but it’s too early to say goodbye to summer.” Wtf!!@#$%^&*.

But less than a week later, PAG-ASA said six more storms are expected to hit the country between now (May 12) and July. The following day it declares that the rainy season is officially here. But the summer heat persisted with a devilish vengeance, but PAG-ASA claims that heat during rainy season is normal. Wtf!@#$%^&* again.

The end of May nears, it's now two and a half weeks into the rainy season and we have not had a drop of rain. For the six-storms-before-July prediction to be true, PAG-ASA must now be doing the rain dance and singing their lungs out offkey, praying for six storms in June. I remember the joke about the predicted storm that did not come because "masama ang panahon". Now PAG-ASA can claim the the storms thid not come because they did not like the hot Manila weather.

Correct weather forecasts are important in a country where 40% of the national product comes from agriculture. Farmers need to know when they can start to plant, to take advantage of the rains. I know weather forecasting is difficult, but the PAG-ASA versions are way off. Amanda Pineda (PAG-ASA-A, the Tessie Tomas character in Champoy) gave more accurate forecasts. And the real PAG-ASA's forecasts are funnier.

Hopeless PAG-ASA II

Two and a half weeks after declaring that the rainy season is here and still without not a drop of rain, the two hottest days of the year came in succession last Monday and Tuesday to further burn PAG-ASA's reputation. Perhaps reeling from heat stroke, the PAG-ASA boldly proclaimed that Wednesday will be the hottest. Wtf!@#$%^&*() PAG-ASA making another prediction?

The weather gods must be angry. They must be punishing the PAG-ASA because Wednesday was cloudy and in fact it rained in Metro Manila. They were enough to cool Metro Manila and again make PAG-ASA terribly wrong. PAG-ASA = FAIL! Utterly hopeless.

Hopeful for Pag-asa

This space has been been a tough critic of the state-run weather bureau. We ran a series of posts calling Pag-asa hopeless. When President PNoy replaced the bureau's chief, people hoped that indeed may pag-asa pa sa Pag-asa. People wanted the new Pag-asa to succeed not only for us to receive better forecasts but also for Pnoy's first presidential acts to be proven right. After the media success of the anti wangwang-drive, many of Pnoy's succeeding directives are met with cynicism.

So what's new with Pag-asa? Aside from having a new chief, they are now issuing hourly status reports during a major weather disturbance. This is a dramatic jump from the former 6 or 12 hour reports. They also post updates in their new twitter account.

For typhoon Juan (internationally known as Megi), I noticed that Pag-asa tries to be as precise as possible. Instead of a forecast that cuts a wide swath across the archipelago, the forecast stopped short a little north of Manila. We used to have forecasts of typhoons said to affect Batanes to Bicol. And more often than not, Manila had fine weather despite (or in spite of) the projection. It's good to note that so far Pag-asa is spot-on its forecast. Congratulations, Pag-asa. Keep on the good work!

Hopeless PAG-ASA V

I am now constantly monitoring PAG-ASA's weather forecasts. They fail big-time 100% of the time. But today I noticed a change in their strategy, they have several people who make different forecasts which are published in different newspapers/websites. They want to cover all possible scenarios. I read the Inquirer and the Manila Bulletin while watching over Vito who's confined at the hospital because of dengue. I expected the different slants on the political news, but not on a subject like the weather.

1. The web edition of the Inquirer carried the same story as the broadsheet edition. It said "more sunshine and drier weather in the coming days" according to PAG-ASA's Benjie de Paz. 
2. The Manila Bulletin Sunday edition says Nathaniel Cruz, also from PAG-ASA, predicts the rains to continue.
3. Philstar.com reports that PAG-ASA's Bernie de Leon sees less rain next week, more or less the same as what Inquirer says. 
4. Abs-cbnnews.com, as of 06/07/2009 4:28 PM, headlines "PAGASA: Rains likely to continue until Monday" according to Nathaniel Cruz.
   

Prisco Nilo was wrong last week. Cruz, too. PAG-ASA's hopes rests on de Leon and de Paz.

Hopeless PAG-ASA III

Another blog pointed out PAG-ASA's kapalpakan last year. He made a sensible suggestion for the PAG-ASA to compare its weather forecast first with U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other countries’ weather forecast such as Japan, Taiwan or Hong Kong before announcing it in public. Or better yet, just tune in to the other weather bureaus. Our weather agency has the knack of declaring public storm signals and the lack of storms to justify the warnings.

Related to the hot Monday and Tuesday last week, PAG-ASA forecasted the hot weather that has plagued Metro Manila and nearby areas to go on for one to two more weeks before the rains come in. It said this is due to the ridge of a high-pressure area across Luzon. "So far, our forecasting shows this hot weather may persist for one to two weeks more," a spokesman said on radio.

But the weather was not listening. Metro Manila experienced a very heavy downpour this afternoon. Flash floods and heavy traffic await the payday crowd, just because the rains was not tuned in to PAG-ASA.

Hopeless PAG-ASA IV

Perhaps stung and still red-faced with its way-off forecasts, PAG-ASA chose not to comment at all about the rains. The Department of Education, too, was non-committal about declaring suspension of classes early yesterday. But heavy rains the PAG-ASA was expecting last month came in full force. Forcing the DepEd to cancel classes by 12:00 noon yesterday, when half of the students were already wet and shivering.

Buoyed up by the rains, government authorities, in an attempt to become relevant, decided to push their luck and immediately declared suspension of classes at 5:00am this morning. With all the rains last Thursday, they expected Friday to be rainy as well. At last we will be right, they thought! Or so they thought. But again, PAG-ASA and DepEd authorities must be gnashing their teeth in wonder what could they have done in their past lives to deserve this, the weather did not cooperate. Except for a brief spell of gusty winds in the morning, the expected rains did not come. Instead, the clouds dissipated to make way anew for the mighty sun. As of 12:30pm today, the sun is still smugly snickering with scorn.

PAG-ASA's expected vindication did not come. It did not rain on their parade.

Hopeless Pag-asa / GMA

When the rains started to soothe the scorched earth, folks gladly welcomed the rainy season but Pag-asa did not immediately declare that summer's over. In fact, just last week they said the heat will be back. But after a few more days of rains Pag-asa relented. Finally last Sunday, they turned on their words half week earlier and declared the rainy season has started. They advised farmers to plant and take advantage of the rains.

But the Pag-asa forecasters must have been real bad in their previous lives. No rains came after their announcement. It's been three days now and the heat's been back. They could be right the first time. The rains are really here, it's just Pag-asa's luck to look bad. Always.
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Three weeks before stepping down, GMA is back on the road (foreign roads, actually). This time she is traveling again to China. What foreign policy could be served by this trip? Nothing.

But she could tie up loose ends in the aborted broadband deal.

The Age of Stupid 4 meets Hopeless PAG-ASA VI

After Ondoy and Pepeng showed PAG-ASA's ineffectiveness, the weather bureau boldly predicted three days of good weather last Monday, October 12. And once again, it lived up to its reputation. By Tuesday, the strong rains are back and this afternoon, classes at UST are suspended because of the rains.

While climate change is to blame for the high volume of rain fall, PAG-ASA botched its job in predicting how much volume is going to fall so the dams can have preemptive releases. The sudden releases (no warnings) of water from the dams unnecessarily cost lives and property. This happened with Ondoy. And with Ondoy's horror still fresh on our minds, it happened again with Pepeng. How low can our hopes go.

Tessie Tomas' Amanda Pineda has more credibility than the clowns at PAG-ASA. And she's funny. Nilo Prisco and Nathaniel Cruz blunders would have been funny too, had their inefficiency not brought tragedies.

San Juan Feast Day; DOH? duh!; PAG-ASA? Hopeless.

San Juan celebrated its fiesta yesterday, June 24, to honor the town's patron saint - Saint John the Baptist. The revelries include streetdancing with the traditional "Basaan (dousing of water)". Firetrucks hosed down hundreds of people dancing and celebrating on the streets in the annual “Wattah Wattah” festival.

My son Popoy started his festivities with a water gun duel with his cousin Brix. Then when later the two joined the neighbors in dousing all the game passers by in our street. They spared no one, pedestrians, vehicles, they even tried to open closed windows and doors. The wet ones did not mind at all. All was done in fun.

Vito did not join the fun because he was again ill, this time with flu like symptoms. Which brings to mind the online survey on the Dept of Health's handling of the swine flu situation. 75% think the DoH botched it. My thoughts too. Early last month, they wanted Pacquiao to delay his return from abroad to prevent the spread of the disease. Then they early this month they did not want to delay the opening of classes, saying it won't prevent its spread. Now together with the Dept of Education, they want a selective suspension of classes to prevent the spread.

They now also say that the President is not required to self-quarantine when she comes back from her travel, contrary to their pronounced policy last month. And with the rest of the world is placing advance orders on a vaccine that is being developed, they DOH is not ordering any, yet. They say they still do not know who to vaccinate first:  "...the health workers, policemen, and the military; the working groups; or the very young and the very old". Whatever they decide, they will vaccinate anyway, so place your orders now! Common sense is not common at the DoH.

Metro Manila classes are suspended because PAG-ASA declared typhoon storm signal no. 2. The signal signals that good weather will befall upon us. True to form, the weather was not stormy at all yesterday. PAG-ASA is still the most consistent Philippine agency today. Consistently wrong. You just have to expect the reverse of what they say.

Summer's here! Fire prevention reminders should stay.

After saying last month that summer will be delayed, Pag-asa finally declared that summer is here. The weather agency advised that summer has officially started. It further said that summer will be cooler this year, and boldly predicted that a wet Holy Week looms. How's that again? Is Pag-asa back to its hopeless ways?

The weather really seemed fickle in the first quarter. Not that we're complaining. The cold spell lasted a bit longer early this year. Then some parts of the country got flooded due to heavy rains. Then summer got late. Pagasa attributes all these to climate change.

But through it all, Pagasa sustained the credibility it got after a change in management early in Pnoy's term.

With summer delayed, I think the government should sustain or reiterate this April the fire prevention consciousness efforts traditionally made during March. The light material in many houses are tinder dry by now. I noticed that there are more fires this month than in March.

I hope the prediction of a wet cuaresma holds true. Until then, how about running those fire prevention reminders again?

Hopeless Pag-asa X

Reports say PNoy criticized the PAGASA for not warning the residents of Metro Manila about a strong tropical storm that pummeled the nation's capital. Hopeless PAGASA had it coming. Our weather bureau could have used a dart board in predicting the weather and it might have gotten better results. They are that bad.

PAGASA's own website says public storm signal no. 1 is raised when winds of 30-60 kph may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. Public storm signal no. 2 is hoisted when winds of greater than 60 kph and up to 100 kph may be expected in at least 24 hours. This is summarized in the Philippine's first website on tropical cyclones.

What did PAGASA do this time to deserve the presidential ire?

They wrongly predicted the places where typhoon Basyang will hit. They raised signal no. 1 in Metro Manila. When winds over 100kph started to batter the metropolis, they hastily upped it to signal no. 2, only to quickly lower it back to no. 1 after 6 hours, when the typhoon  has passed. You raise public storm signals to notify residents of impending weather disturbances, so they can prepare for contingencies. With its performance, PAGASA does not forecast the weather, it describes the weather. Last night when they raised signal no. 2, they did not mean to forecast winds up to 100kph will come in 24 hours. They meant to describe the winds we have now at 100kph as signal no. 2 category.

Hopeless Pag-asa XI

While Metro Manila folks were waddling trough floods last yesterday, PAGASA declared that today's SONA will be just as wet. Their advise to people to bring umbrellas merited headline news. But as if to spite PAGASA once more, the sun shone so brightly this morning, prompting PAGASA to declare on radio before noon that there will be no repeat of Sunday's torrents. Now we should expect heavy rains.

Update: It had not rained a drop in Manila as of 5:00pm. For the rains to come, we need PAGASA to declare drought, and vice versa. PAGASA may yet offer us hope.