Hopeless Pag-asa X

Reports say PNoy criticized the PAGASA for not warning the residents of Metro Manila about a strong tropical storm that pummeled the nation's capital. Hopeless PAGASA had it coming. Our weather bureau could have used a dart board in predicting the weather and it might have gotten better results. They are that bad.

PAGASA's own website says public storm signal no. 1 is raised when winds of 30-60 kph may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. Public storm signal no. 2 is hoisted when winds of greater than 60 kph and up to 100 kph may be expected in at least 24 hours. This is summarized in the Philippine's first website on tropical cyclones.

What did PAGASA do this time to deserve the presidential ire?

They wrongly predicted the places where typhoon Basyang will hit. They raised signal no. 1 in Metro Manila. When winds over 100kph started to batter the metropolis, they hastily upped it to signal no. 2, only to quickly lower it back to no. 1 after 6 hours, when the typhoon  has passed. You raise public storm signals to notify residents of impending weather disturbances, so they can prepare for contingencies. With its performance, PAGASA does not forecast the weather, it describes the weather. Last night when they raised signal no. 2, they did not mean to forecast winds up to 100kph will come in 24 hours. They meant to describe the winds we have now at 100kph as signal no. 2 category.

Hopeless Pag-asa XI

While Metro Manila folks were waddling trough floods last yesterday, PAGASA declared that today's SONA will be just as wet. Their advise to people to bring umbrellas merited headline news. But as if to spite PAGASA once more, the sun shone so brightly this morning, prompting PAGASA to declare on radio before noon that there will be no repeat of Sunday's torrents. Now we should expect heavy rains.

Update: It had not rained a drop in Manila as of 5:00pm. For the rains to come, we need PAGASA to declare drought, and vice versa. PAGASA may yet offer us hope.

Hopeless Pagasa XXII

Pnoy kicked upstairs the Pagasa director. Technically, Prisco Nilo was not sacked. He was even named to head an office of special studies. But quicker than Pagasa can declare a storm, Pnoy critics decried the relief order, citing the poor equipment that the agency has as the culprit for the bad forecasts.

I do not know what Pnoy critics want. I think they are not really concerned with Nilo being retained at Pagasa. I think they support Nilo now because deep inside they are truly Pnoy bashers.

I am sure everyone wants better performance from the weather agency. Would the Pnoy critics (and Nilo supporters) rather have the same setup? And thus the same performance? They received a tongue lashing a month ago but there is no indication that things will be better. The forecast for the Sona was again way off.

I am sure Nilo is a dedicated weather man. I'm sure their equipment is antiquated. Pnoy is sure there is somebody who can make use of the existing equipment and churn better forecasts. It may be Nilo himself. After he leads a study of why Pagasa failed in the past.

Summer's here! Fire prevention reminders should stay.

After saying last month that summer will be delayed, Pag-asa finally declared that summer is here. The weather agency advised that summer has officially started. It further said that summer will be cooler this year, and boldly predicted that a wet Holy Week looms. How's that again? Is Pag-asa back to its hopeless ways?

The weather really seemed fickle in the first quarter. Not that we're complaining. The cold spell lasted a bit longer early this year. Then some parts of the country got flooded due to heavy rains. Then summer got late. Pagasa attributes all these to climate change.

But through it all, Pagasa sustained the credibility it got after a change in management early in Pnoy's term.

With summer delayed, I think the government should sustain or reiterate this April the fire prevention consciousness efforts traditionally made during March. The light material in many houses are tinder dry by now. I noticed that there are more fires this month than in March.

I hope the prediction of a wet cuaresma holds true. Until then, how about running those fire prevention reminders again?

DepEd advisory issued early; rains come late

From philstar.com:

MANILA, Philippines – Citing a weather forecast of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) of monsoon rains in the early morning “heavier” than last Wednesday and Thursday, the Department of Education (DepEd) announced early yesterday the suspension of classes for the third straight day at the elementary and high school levels in Metro Manila.

But the expected heavy rains did not come in the morning, and Education Secretary Jesli Lapus said the DepEd should not be faulted for the apparent wrong decision on class suspension. Heavy rains started to pour in the metropolis only in mid-afternoon.

Click to read the news article.

Hopeless PAG-ASA V

I am now constantly monitoring PAG-ASA's weather forecasts. They fail big-time 100% of the time. But today I noticed a change in their strategy, they have several people who make different forecasts which are published in different newspapers/websites. They want to cover all possible scenarios. I read the Inquirer and the Manila Bulletin while watching over Vito who's confined at the hospital because of dengue. I expected the different slants on the political news, but not on a subject like the weather.

1. The web edition of the Inquirer carried the same story as the broadsheet edition. It said "more sunshine and drier weather in the coming days" according to PAG-ASA's Benjie de Paz. 
2. The Manila Bulletin Sunday edition says Nathaniel Cruz, also from PAG-ASA, predicts the rains to continue.
3. Philstar.com reports that PAG-ASA's Bernie de Leon sees less rain next week, more or less the same as what Inquirer says. 
4. Abs-cbnnews.com, as of 06/07/2009 4:28 PM, headlines "PAGASA: Rains likely to continue until Monday" according to Nathaniel Cruz.
   

Prisco Nilo was wrong last week. Cruz, too. PAG-ASA's hopes rests on de Leon and de Paz.