Hopeless PAG-ASA

When typhoon "Emong" hit land early this month, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services (PAG-ASA) chief weather forecaster said, “Let us be prepared, It is the start of the storm season in the Philippines.” The welcome rains came but not in torrential downpour to quench the scorched earth. So a day after, he made another statement - “The rains may be here, but it’s too early to say goodbye to summer.” Wtf!!@#$%^&*.

But less than a week later, PAG-ASA said six more storms are expected to hit the country between now (May 12) and July. The following day it declares that the rainy season is officially here. But the summer heat persisted with a devilish vengeance, but PAG-ASA claims that heat during rainy season is normal. Wtf!@#$%^&* again.

The end of May nears, it's now two and a half weeks into the rainy season and we have not had a drop of rain. For the six-storms-before-July prediction to be true, PAG-ASA must now be doing the rain dance and singing their lungs out offkey, praying for six storms in June. I remember the joke about the predicted storm that did not come because "masama ang panahon". Now PAG-ASA can claim the the storms thid not come because they did not like the hot Manila weather.

Correct weather forecasts are important in a country where 40% of the national product comes from agriculture. Farmers need to know when they can start to plant, to take advantage of the rains. I know weather forecasting is difficult, but the PAG-ASA versions are way off. Amanda Pineda (PAG-ASA-A, the Tessie Tomas character in Champoy) gave more accurate forecasts. And the real PAG-ASA's forecasts are funnier.

Management leadership

I have a friend who has resolved not to call the attention of his boss on anything because it always either meets inaction or worse he gets blamed for it. He thinks his bosses are too concerned with processes and control, (purposely or unwittingly) failing to provide project directions. That's why, my friend concludes, their projects never go far from the planning stages. To my mind, my friend's managers fail as a leader. Clearly there's a difference between leading and managing.

Gen. Colin Powell, in a leadership primer, said that "The day soldiers stop bringing you their problems is the day you have stopped leading them. They have either lost confidence that you can help them or concluded that you do not care. Either case is a failure of leadership." Here's the primer.

Quotations from Chairman Powell: A Leadership Primer

1. Being responsible sometimes means pissing people off.
2. The day soldiers stop bringing you their problems is the day you have stopped leading them. They have either lost confidence that you can help them or concluded that you do not care. Either case is a failure of leadership.
3. Don't be buffaloed by experts and elites. Experts often possess more data than judgment. Elites can become so inbred that they produce hemophiliacs who bleed to death as soon as they are nicked by the real world.
4. Don't be afraid to challenge the pros, even in their own backyard.
5. Never neglect details. When everyone's mind is dulled or distracted the leader must be doubly vigilant.
6. You don't know what you can get away with until you try.
7. Keep looking below surface appearances. Don't shrink from doing so (just) because you might not like what you find.
8. Organization doesn't really accomplish anything. Plans don't accomplish anything, either. Theories of management don't much matter. Endeavors succeed or fail because of the people involved. Only by attracting the best people will you accomplish great deeds.
9. Organization charts and hence titles count for next to nothing.
10. Never let your ego get so close to your position that when your position goes, your ego goes with it.
11. Fit no stereotypes. Don't chase the latest management fads. The situation dictates which approach best accomplishes the team's mission.
12. Perpetual optimism is a force multiplier.
13. Powell's Rules for Picking People" - Look for intelligence and judgment and, most critically, a capacity to anticipate, to see around corners. Also look for loyalty, integrity, a high energy drive, a balanced ego and the drive to get things done.
14. Great leaders are almost always great simplifiers, who can cut through argument, debate and doubt, to offer a solution everybody can understand.
15. Use the formula P=40 to 70, in which P stands for the probability of success and the numbers indicate the percentage of information acquired." Part II: "Once the information is in the 40 to 70 range, go with your gut.
16. The commander in the field is always right and the rear echelon is wrong, unless proved otherwise.
17. Have fun in your command. Don't always run at a breakneck pace. Take leave when you've earned it. Spend time with your families. Corollary: Surround yourself with people who take their work seriously, but not themselves, those who work hard and play hard.
18. Command is lonely.

Kawawa we!

Throngs stayed days in vigil to get inside the Ultra. They wanted a chance to partake of the US$50K that WowWowWee will give away. They thought that the odds of getting inside the show, being selected as contestant, and winning, is more realistic than getting a trickle of the growth that the government claims.

The stampede that resulted in terrible loss of life is unfortunate enough. There will be investigations as usual. But what do officials learn from these investigations? Just very recently, four persons died and scores wounded in another stampede in a rock concert. Investigations showed that there were only about a hundred bouncers/policemen to control 20,000 beer-thirsty-rock-concert-going crowd. In that stampede, the police general that looked like comedian Long Mejia claimed that the stampede started when somebody shouted 'may magnanakaw'. The comical police chief this time may say that somebody shouted 'bomba' to start this accident.

But the government should start a serious investigation on what drives masses of people to flock these mindless shows just to be ridiculed on national TV. The reason, of course, is the same reason for the long queues at the lotto. We think that the chances of getting a small fortune there is better than getting a slice of the growth that this government claims. This indicates that the people has lost all confidence in this government. With GMA, Kawawa we!

The pattern of deceit

I'm afraid the new round of jeepney fare adjustments (they prefer to call it that, instead of fare increase) will bring in more confusion than necessary. First, they say the base is shortened from 5 to 4 kilometers. I don't remember who made it 5 km again. Marcos (or Cory) brought the base down to 4 km years ago. So it's a trick. Then the LTFRB chief says the fare is only 63 centavos but won't mind if drivers round it up to 75 centavos as long as the passengers agree. Whaaat? That's allowing the jeepney operators to raise fare if we agree. If we don't then 'bahala kayo mag-away!' The new fare adjustment means that the minimum is still P4.00 for the first 4 kms. Pero dati na yun. Inuuto lang nila ang drivers. Pag-aawayin lang nila ang mga driver at pasajero

The government is buying time before it really acts on the fare issue. It does not want to allow any fare increase before the elections, but at the same time it does not want to antagonize the whole jeepney sector, knowing that it can only pay off some leaders but not the whole force. Again we see the pattern of deceit in its dealings.