Sex video scandal: who has the means, motive, opportunity?

As fans of TV crime dramas like CSI and Cold Case, some people have their own conclusions on who the guilty parties are in the current sex video scandal that grips the nation. The victims here are the women who were filmed without their consent. Efforts to portray the one who setup the hidden camera also as a victim just wouldn't fly. It all started with him. Remember that the crime here is not him being seduced by the women, nor them offering him drugs. The crimes are the videotaping and the subsequent release to the Internet.

The crime of unauthorized videotaping is solved with the admission by the culprit. The crime of uploading to the Internet can be solved by following the methods of our TV crime drama detectives, my armchair detective friends say. First who has the means? With today's Internet tools, anybody can easily upload anything to the Internet. Who then had access to the videos? The one who made them, of course. But he had them for a while. Some videos were two years old. Why didn't he upload them then? He always has the opportunity, I suppose, but he doesn't have a motive, so far.

Who else then have access to the videos? Pamela Anderson's and the other notorious sex scandals were stolen. The videos (and computers) in question now were not reported stolen. They were retrieved by the doctor-lover of the lover-doctor. Ahh, so she had the videos. Means? Didn't I tell you it's easy to upload anything to the Internet, much more so if you have techie-friends. Opportunity? May I remind you that between the retrieval last December up to the release, was 5 months of planning and opportunity.

Motive? Imagine this dialog:

Witch Doctor: You two (four?) timing snake, how could you betray me? After the Php300k allowance and car and European trips?
Hidden Komeraman: They drugged me. But forget that, I will make you happy. Besides, I have a video of us too.
Witch Doctor: Ohh, please don't leak it. I don't want to be a model for prunes. Besides, you're the only one who can make me happy. I forgive you. I'll deal with them in my own way!
Hidden Komeraman: I know you can't resist me.

So what happens next? The lady doctor changed her lawyer. From a pock-marked brilliant trial lawyer to a TV-friendly-faced brilliant academician lawyer. Preparing for the media in the long haul? If there was also a video with the lady doctor, why wasn't it leaked like the others? If there was also a video with a comedienne, why wasn't it leaked, too? Because they can control what leaks, and the comedienne supposedly enjoys the protection of really big people. Then they contrive a story of retrieving the computer and asking others to delete the videos. Introducing other people in the scenario affords the couple reasonable doubt. Then divert the story by alleging drug use to the victim. This wouldn't fly either because that would imply drug use in the other videos including the one with the lady doctor. So they try to make the doctor look hapless and pitiable by dousing him with water. Meanwhile the lady doctor flees. Even if others regard flight as guilt.

With all the obfuscation and media machinations, the public will get tired of this whole show. But the victims remain victims. People can imagine the lady doctor having the last laugh - 'I told you when a guy already has a girlfriend, don't go in there and try to have sex with him.'. Then the doctor makes love to a prune. Hahahaha.

Hopeless PAG-ASA III

Another blog pointed out PAG-ASA's kapalpakan last year. He made a sensible suggestion for the PAG-ASA to compare its weather forecast first with U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other countries’ weather forecast such as Japan, Taiwan or Hong Kong before announcing it in public. Or better yet, just tune in to the other weather bureaus. Our weather agency has the knack of declaring public storm signals and the lack of storms to justify the warnings.

Related to the hot Monday and Tuesday last week, PAG-ASA forecasted the hot weather that has plagued Metro Manila and nearby areas to go on for one to two more weeks before the rains come in. It said this is due to the ridge of a high-pressure area across Luzon. "So far, our forecasting shows this hot weather may persist for one to two weeks more," a spokesman said on radio.

But the weather was not listening. Metro Manila experienced a very heavy downpour this afternoon. Flash floods and heavy traffic await the payday crowd, just because the rains was not tuned in to PAG-ASA.

While we're not looking

On January 30, this cute administration gushed over what it called a better-than-expected economic growth as gleaned from its own official statistics. The government’s economic managers claimed the results were  "respectable" compared to its Asian peers. The 4th quarter growth of 4.5% exceeded official estimates of 3.6-4.4%, pulling up the full-year result to 4.6% where the target range was 4.1-4.8%.

But wait, while we were not looking, the government has revised downward the economic expansion it proudly screamed, with officials saying they "overestimated" economic numbers. Now they say the gross domestic product in the 4th quarter was only at 2.9%, from 4.5% that they originally announced. Because of this downward revision, growth in 2008 was ony at 3.8%, much lower than 4.6% growth originally reported.

They trumpeted the 4.5% in the headlines. Expect the lower 2.9% to be buried deep inside the business pages. I wonder how they will spin it.

Hopeless PAG-ASA II

Two and a half weeks after declaring that the rainy season is here and still without not a drop of rain, the two hottest days of the year came in succession last Monday and Tuesday to further burn PAG-ASA's reputation. Perhaps reeling from heat stroke, the PAG-ASA boldly proclaimed that Wednesday will be the hottest. Wtf!@#$%^&*() PAG-ASA making another prediction?

The weather gods must be angry. They must be punishing the PAG-ASA because Wednesday was cloudy and in fact it rained in Metro Manila. They were enough to cool Metro Manila and again make PAG-ASA terribly wrong. PAG-ASA = FAIL! Utterly hopeless.

Hopeless PAG-ASA

When typhoon "Emong" hit land early this month, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services (PAG-ASA) chief weather forecaster said, “Let us be prepared, It is the start of the storm season in the Philippines.” The welcome rains came but not in torrential downpour to quench the scorched earth. So a day after, he made another statement - “The rains may be here, but it’s too early to say goodbye to summer.” Wtf!!@#$%^&*.

But less than a week later, PAG-ASA said six more storms are expected to hit the country between now (May 12) and July. The following day it declares that the rainy season is officially here. But the summer heat persisted with a devilish vengeance, but PAG-ASA claims that heat during rainy season is normal. Wtf!@#$%^&* again.

The end of May nears, it's now two and a half weeks into the rainy season and we have not had a drop of rain. For the six-storms-before-July prediction to be true, PAG-ASA must now be doing the rain dance and singing their lungs out offkey, praying for six storms in June. I remember the joke about the predicted storm that did not come because "masama ang panahon". Now PAG-ASA can claim the the storms thid not come because they did not like the hot Manila weather.

Correct weather forecasts are important in a country where 40% of the national product comes from agriculture. Farmers need to know when they can start to plant, to take advantage of the rains. I know weather forecasting is difficult, but the PAG-ASA versions are way off. Amanda Pineda (PAG-ASA-A, the Tessie Tomas character in Champoy) gave more accurate forecasts. And the real PAG-ASA's forecasts are funnier.